You guys with the sng-program, whats the best move here?

[DonButtons]

NL Hold'em $100 Buy-in + $9 Entry Fee Trny:11506800 Level:8 Blinds(250/500) - Thursday, April 21, 22:29:41 EDT
Table Table 11823 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 3: Fish0fTheDay ( $1843 )
Seat 4: slessurb ( $479 )
Seat 5: iwascastlemn ( $4880 )
Seat 10: carlito66638 ( $2798 )
Trny:11506800 Level:8
Blinds(250/500)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Fish0fTheDay [ Qc Ah ]
carlito66638 calls [500].
Fish0fTheDay ??

I dont like calling here, as for sure the BB (another 2+2er) would push if sb folded, so is this a easy push against the range of hands he might limp with here, which im not sure, but he was raising a ton when he had big stack and showing down bluffs.

So I guess the play is to either push, or fold...Im leaning towards pushing, but want to see the math behind it..

[lastchance]

Yeah, same. What do you put UTG on?

[Al P]

I think it's a trap...

A) He's not even trying to steal blinds and this limp puts him down within 1BB of your stack.

B) Shorty is going to blind out in a few hands.

C) He's giving BB a free flop and BB has him covered.

D) He's shown a bit of aggression before and now is totally passive. No one is passive with 500 blinds.

I just don't think he has AJ-A9 that you want him to have here.

[Apathy]

This is a difficult thing to calculate with ICM UTG could have almost anything and is likely just limping in to try to help out in busting the short stack. That means he won't call a push with a monster, which he would have raised. Seven can't call without a Monster and the SB will usually fold hoping he can sneak ITM, this gives you a free 1250 chips a pretty high percentage of the time.

Plus since you have a strong hand you will win a good number of showdowns in the event you are called.

[microbet]

I'm not 100% sure, but I don't thing the SNG powertools is up for this situation. You can't put in a limper before you decide to push. It also doesn't like any stack under 1 BB.

Maybe someone will do it the old fashioned way.

FWIW, I don't think ICM will like it unless you think there is a pretty solid chance BB and the limper will fold.

[Blarg]

Interesting to think about.

I think the chances of a call from UTG are increased because of the short stack. The big blind will put the short stack basically all-in in just two more hands anyway, and by the time the small blind is done, all shortstack's money will have been in the pot anyway. So if shortstack has any kind of hand at all, he might well call a push from hero, hoping to get some serious chip mileage out of having two players to collect from if he wins. He's not going to have much time to wait for a stealing opportunity, after all.

If the short stack calls, then in turn UTG is looking at a lot of money in the pot and a chance to knock out two players and land in the money, tied for first, all in one hand. This is an attractive gamble indeed for a gambling type.

For some reason I'm putting UTG on Ace-Ten or Ace-Any, a small or medium pair, or something not thrilling. Either that or a total trap like AA. In either case, even if both blinds fold he is looking at getting a crack at about $3.1k for putting in just $1843 of his own money when calling a push from hero, perhaps up to almost $3.6k for his $1.8k if the short stack chimes in with an all-in of his own. Two to one odds are pretty good, and a little less isn't bad either.

It seems to me there would be a decent chance of UTG calling a push even with a pretty mediocre hand.

Then again, I only play the 10's. I'm sure the likelihood of people calling with all kinds of garbage has got to have at least some effect on how I view whether people are likely to call with either good or bad hands.

[ChrisV]

I think it depends on SB. If there's even a small chance SB will fold hoping you bust, then push is huge because nobody is going to want to call you. If you think SB is putting the rest of his stack in no matter what, then I like folding and staying out of trouble. I'm not big on calling. Versus typical players I like push.

[Nottom]

I think your reading too much into the limp. He just wants to knock out the shortstack here much more often than he is trapping with a big hand.

[GoldenHorde]

I can't show you any math but if you think the SB will fold hoping to limp ITM which looks like a good possibility with his under 1BB stack pushing is the right move. UTG call smells of trying to bust small stack and with blinds hitting him next he doesn't want to be left with 900 so I think he folds anything but a montser.

[prepotency]

The entire basis for this question renders the SNG tools obsolete IMHO because all mathematical calculations at this point must take into account the hand range that the other player limped with which we have really no idea what to make of. Given this, it's going to have to be completely about feel in this situation. Personally, and this might change if I were at the table the whole game, I'd be inclined to think that the limper is expecting a big pot to come through on this hand and he just wants to see if he can hit the flop. I think that somtimes people UTG or in early position like to just call because it can disincline people behind them to push since there are so many people invested in the hand. Furthermore, at this blind level, the implied odds are amazingly high if a favorable flop does come out.