Check-raise river bluff: how rare is this opportunity really?

[JimmyV]

Paying a little more attention in the Party 15/30 felt good yesterday. Here's an opportunity of a sort I think I've been missing since the advent of the 'Fold to Any Bet' box.

Two limpers in mid position and I complete with 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Flop is the one I had in mind: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I check, EMP bets, LMP raises, and I cold-call (shudder). BB folds.

Turn is J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Check, check, and LMP takes his free card. This gives him precisely 89 in my book, when I write a book.

River is a bricky Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I bullet-check but keep watching, since I'm turning over a new leaf today. EMP checks!

LMP bets. I check-raise. Both opponents fold.

Comments?

[steveyz]

I think you take this one down more often by betting out on the river. I assume that if EMP had bet out, you would have folded? If you would have, you are giving EMP a chance to bluff his missed draw.

[JimmyV]

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you are giving EMP a chance to bluff his missed draw.

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How many 8's are in the deck?

I'm also giving him a chance to value-bet.

Anyway, he has position on me, so bluff-betting is his prerogative this hand (just as it was with some marginal holding on the flop).

But I suppose in this desolate climate you have no use for a protocol droid.

JimmyV

[steveyz]

Could be something like T9. Anyways, unless you are sure that LP will always bluff his missed draw, I think betting out is more +EV than check-raising. Also, when it comes to bluffing, later position doesn't mean better position. There are a lot of situations where bluffing from an earlier position has a much better chance of succeeding. Mainly in obvious bluffing situations. E.g. rag flop gets checked through, on the turn if you want to bluff, you want to be in first position, mainly because in later position, someone will usually take a stab before you.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
Could be something like T9. Anyways, unless you are sure that LP will always bluff his missed draw, I think betting out is more +EV than check-raising.

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I disagree, EMP guy often has a hand he will call with since he bet the flop. He usually won't want to call 2-bets however so you need to pull off the check-raise if that is the case.

[1800GAMBLER]

Twice in 40k hands so far. 100% success rate though.

[skp]

I have started threads earlier (check the archives) on river bluff checkraises. IMO, most river checkraise bluffs cannot be planned. That is to say, the idea to checkraise only becomes viable after there has been a suspicious bet. It's too difficult to plan a bluff checkraise because that requires you to know not only that the other guy has no hand but that he will put a bet out there for you to bluff checkraise.

In your hand, you have to be sure that the LP will bluff in order to make your plan work. Otherwise, it's better to bluff yourself. But it sounds like you were indeed fairly confident that all of the elements were in place for a planned river bluff checkraise. Well done....particularly if you were multi-tabling at the time.