Chasing with cowboys

[Nukid]

Playing 6-12 this weekend, I am the bring-in with (KK)2 and bring it in for 2. A 6, 7, and 9 limp, a 6 and 8 fold and then a six raises. He hasn't voluntarily entered a pot yet, so I respect him for having at least tens or better. I two-bet, the first six folds, seven (who is uber-fishie) calls, and the nine folds. Then the six three-bets. He can't have a set, as two of his sixes are out, so I'm 95% sure he has aces. Given that information, can I chase? There are 9 small bets in the pot, and I assume the fish will chase as well, with his likely pair of sevens. I ended up chasing based on the fact, that it would be easy to fold if the pocket aces made two pair or trips, and the fact that he would keep on calling if I made two pair. Plus I'm getting extra odds on my chasing as the fish will put in money with his lone pair of sevens. Is this a fair statement, or should I have said "He's got aces, I'm beat" and folded. Also, If I'm going to chase how long should I chase without improving?

[Thinkards]

In this situation, chasing (until you know you are beaten) does not seem to be such a bad option. Here's my reasoning:

As you point out, the sixes are virtually dead, and so there is almost no chance the player has made it 3 bets with a pair of dead split sixes. Therefore, you are entirely correct to assume your opponent has a large pair in the hole.

Because you already have a pair of kings, the only pair he possibly could have that is better than yours is aces; beginning with this fact, and the near certainty that he cannot make a pair with his dead six, already means your chances of getting either trips or two pair are better than his from the get-go. Additionally, because he made it three bets (presumably giving away his hand), you practically are assured of knowing when he has made at least two pair (and thus you then may fold).

Now, let's take another approach:

You have pocket kings. If he is a tight player, and you are sure he has 10's or better in the hole, that means there are four pairs (out of a possible five) he could be holding that are not better than your kings (namely -- 10's, J's, Q's, and K's). So, given the same reasoning as before (vis-a-vis the dead sixes), you virtually are assured of knowing when he at least has made a second pair. Of course, if you think he might three-bet with something less than aces, then you will need to be very watchful of what he does if he should catch a card that ranks between 10 and ace; you also will need to watch the board for where (and if) those particular cards land in the various hands.

It seems to me that if your opponent has been kind enough to reveal his hand at third street, and if, at that moment, you are lucky enough to be holding a quality starting hand (such as live hidden kings), then you have acquired a MAJOR advantage with respect to how you may play the hand; and thus you should play. (While the hand still might be lost, I would rather play a round with the luxury of knowing what it is my opponent is holding; that way, all of my decisions are guaranteed to be correct.)

Hope this helps.

[kelvin474]

he wouldn't do that with QQ under there? In any case, there's way too many bets in there to fold, plus you'll know if he makes two-pair, as you mentioned. What does he think of you?

Does it look like you could have made that raise with a big three-flush? maybe (A,K)2 ?

Also, notice how dead his Six is. Your deuce is live, and so are your kings. Chase away! his six is almost totally worthless.

Twodimes results for (AA)6 vs (KK)2 and (74)7 with the dead cards mentioned are, with suits approximately equal,
that you'll win 32 pct. of the time. You also have playing advantages over the fish (since I gave him credit for Sevens; you win more than 1/3 of the time if he just has garbage).

I think you have to chase to at least 5th street, unless the case 6 shows up on the tight player's hand, or an ace. I think this is under "playing against a hidden big pair" in 7cs fap, somewhere.

[7stud]

I think your analysis of the hand is good except for on 3rd street. Your raise doesn't really put you on a specific hand, and your opponent could very well have queens or jacks--or even Kings(I've seen it happen before.) In my opinion, folding there is not an option. If you suspect Aces in the hole, then you should check and call all the way to the river.

Taking a look at the numbers:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=69320
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s kc kh 2d - ac as 6c / 6d 6h
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kc 2d Kh 183322 36.66 316670 63.33 8 0.00 0.367
As Ac 6c 316670 63.33 183322 36.66 8 0.00 0.633

That says you would be a 1.73 to 1 underdog to win against a certain pair of Aces. With the fish in there, you're getting 2 to 1 on the bets you will have to put in the pot, in addition to the antes and dead money from the limpers. So, a call is justified.

What if the fish mucked his hand out of turn as soon as the 6 re-raised and your now lone opponent picked up his hole cards and flashed a pair of aces at you? Should you call in that case? Assuming $1 ante, $2 bring in, and rake of $1 per $20 in the pot, and 7 players:

$7 (antes)
$2, $2, $2, $2(your bring in plus limpers)

6 raises $6
You reraise $4+$6
fish calls $4+$6
6 reraises $6
where do you stand?

$47 total in the pot(less than 9 small bets)
- $2 rake
----------
$45

Looking at your real odds, the worst situation you'll encounter is calling the $6 on 3rd street, having to call $6 more on 4th, $12 on 5th, $12 on 6th, and $12 on 7th--for a total of $48, and your opponent will bet an additional $42(4th + 5th + 6th + 7th). That's a total of $90 more that will go into the pot, and the rake on that is $4. So, you need to put in $48 more to win:

$45(current pot) + $42(opponent's future bets) - $4(additional rake) = $83

$83 to $48(your current call and future calls) is 1.73 to 1. So, even if you knew the fish would fold and your opponent had aces, your real pot odds would be identical to the odds of your winning the hand, so it would be a coin flip whether you should continue.

[Andy B]

If this guy shows you two Aces and you have two Kings, the size of the pot dictates that you continue. Having the third player in doesn't hurt you, because he only costs you money on those rare occasions where you improve, the apparent Aces don't, and he improves more.

How long had the Aces guy been in the game? I don't consider myself to be particularly tight, but I will occasionally go half an hour or more without entering a pot. I am leary of making narrow, irreversible reads, but it sure does sound like he has Aces. Your limp and re-raise should signal a big hand, so for a typical $6/12 player to three-bet, he almost has to have Aces. I would continue and then probably fold if he made an open pair or caught an Ace, unless I had tripped up. The pot is too big to fold on third street, though.

[SittingBull]