Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event

[jwvdcw]

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easiest call in the world...people like you are the reason we make so much money

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1. He wasn't suggesting to fold; He was just asking.

2. There are a number of weaknesses worse than this that are responsible for making us money.

[jwvdcw]

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I think that people are answering this too quickly without giving it enough thought.

Suppose I am in the SB and Phil Ivey is the BB. Everyone folds to me.
Ok, what am I thinking ?
Well, firstly I’m sh!t scared of having to get involved in a hand with Phil Ivey. If we get to see a flop, then he’s definitely going to outplay me, and I’m going to lose chips, so the best EV decision for me is to fold.
Even if I have KK or QQ, I’m going to fold, cos if I raise and he calls me, I’m in deep trouble after that because he’s got position, and well, because he’s Phil Ivey.

Then I look at my hand – oh no, AA.
Disaster !
What do I do ?
I know, I’ll go all in. That way I cleverly negate his positional advantage. He can’t outplay me because I don’t have to think anymore.
So, that’s what I do. All in.

Ok, now look at it from Phil Ivey’s position. He has AA and the SB has gone all-in.
Because he’s Phil Ivey, he reads the SB like an open book, and immediately draws the conclusion that the SB has AA too.
So if Phil calls all-in, then 95.65% of the time, the pot is split.
But 2.17% of the time Phil wins, and 2.17% of the time Phil loses.
So Phil says to himself,
“why take the chance of doubling up when there’s an equal chance of me being knocked out ?
I’ll get lots of better opportunities later.
So, I fold.”

Result : Instant fold.

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[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[jwvdcw]

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Read the original post. AA vs xx not AA vs AA


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I politely suggest that YOU read the original post, and then my posts. You will see that if I go all-in as the SB in this situation, then Phil Ivey, with his superhuman powers of deduction, his godlike card-reading skills, his infallible psychological profiling, his proven ESP expertise, his ability to be in the zone, etc. etc. will know I have AA.

So to YOU i.e. Average Joe, it is AA v xx.
But to the imperious Ivey, it is AA v AA.

Now, for the last time, what part of my reasoning do you not understand ?

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I don't understand the part of your reasoning that says that because you'd only play AA against Ivey and that you'd play them by going all in preflop that any other opponent in this scenario would also play that exact way against Ivey.

But, yes, I know you're fishing here.

[jwvdcw]

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Imagine this scenario. Phil Hellmuth is the SB, Phil Ivey is the BB. Both have AA. Hellmuth takes a glance at Ivey and of course puts him 100% on AA. Ivey, also before any action has taken place, takes a quick look at Hellmuth and puts him 100% on AA. Both fear getting allin against the other player on this hand, risking elimination for very small upside potential. What happens now? Will Phil Hellmuth open-fold AA from the SB? Of course, before acting, Phil Hellmuth will realize that Phil Ivey puts him on AA. And Ivey knows that Hellmuth puts him on AA and also knows that Hellmuth knows that he knows that Hellmuth has AA and puts him on AA. Will this results in some sort of stalemate situation where neither player can do anything?

You are correct, this really is a fascinating question.

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lol...best thread I've read in a while here.