JJ put to the test on the turn

[mike l.]

black JJ in utg+1 good live 15-30 game, i openraise. button calls, he thinks im fos, he is a loose player. sb and bb call. sb is new to the game. he plays every hand and he is randomly aggressive. bb is some fish. 4 of us.

the flop is Qd8d2c. checked to me, i bet, they all call.

the turn is 4s. checked to me, i bet, button calls, sb checkraises, bb folds. what should i do the rest of the hand?

[brick]

I think it's close between calling down and folding.
Your read seems to lean strongly towards "This guys are wacko and probably have nothing." Even so I still think its close.

Folding will encourage them to keep playing wakco. This could pay off over the next few hours.

It depends on your read of the situation.

[Robb]

Add up the pot, estimate the chance that you are good, 3 bet if you want to continue - fold if you don't. You can't call because of the button and the vulnerability of your hand -- and you don't have implied odds to spike a jack.

But you know all this so not sure what you are asking.

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
black JJ in utg+1 good live 15-30 game, i openraise. button calls, he thinks im fos, he is a loose player. sb and bb call. sb is new to the game. he plays every hand and he is randomly aggressive. bb is some fish. 4 of us.

the flop is Qd8d2c. checked to me, i bet, they all call.

the turn is 4s. checked to me, i bet, button calls, sb checkraises, bb folds. what should i do the rest of the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

From reading this and the post where Gabe questioned your math two opponents think you're FOS. This might a by-product of 1) playing too many hands, 2) betting too much, 3) raising and checkraising too much, 4) trying to steal too much in steal spots (e.g., if you don't try to steal too often then when you do you have a much higher success rate). Get in touch with your inner nit and your game might settle down a bit.

Anyway, if they didn't think you are FOS you are probably beat. But since they do you need to consider getting to the showdown.

~ Rick

[elysium]

hi mike

the main problem i see here is that if the button is on the diamond draw, the SB will likely betout on the river anyway. but you don't have the button on diamonds. you have him on something you lead. you think the SB is semi-bluff check-raising.

the problem with reraising is that you will lose the button who is drawing thin, and the reraise won't likely get you a free showdown, unless the button drops. you could also be trailing a Q weak kicker that will never fold. that's not too likely though.

go ahead and reraise. the button should drop and you should get the free showdown. of course, if checked to on the river, i'm pretty sure you will bet if heads-up.

you could call too.

[mike l.]

"Anyway, if they didn't think you are FOS you are probably beat. But since they do you need to consider getting to the showdown."

only one of these opponents did. not all my opponents do. you do, and you are right to given the hands we played, but you will ultimately pay for it. if we ever play again.

[mike l.]

"Folding will encourage them to keep playing wakco. This could pay off over the next few hours."

wow i didnt think of this, i like this a lot. see i think ive completely lost some fundamental ideas like this somewhere along the way.

what happened was i folded and the button folded and sb flipped over KdTd for a semibluff flush draw. so i started playing more aggro with that guy from here on out. a hand came up where i could sense he was getting sick of me raising his bets and putting him to the test all the time and he he went off for four bets on the turn with a pair of fours when i held a flush.

so good point brick.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
"Folding will encourage them to keep playing wakco. This could pay off over the next few hours."

wow i didnt think of this, i like this a lot. see i think ive completely lost some fundamental ideas like this somewhere along the way.

what happened was i folded and the button folded and sb flipped over KdTd for a semibluff flush draw. so i started playing more aggro with that guy from here on out. a hand came up where i could sense he was getting sick of me raising his bets and putting him to the test all the time and he he went off for four bets on the turn with a pair of fours when i held a flush.

so good point brick.

[/ QUOTE ]

I still think it's a good fold. I'm starting to notice a theme where your opponents all think you're fos, must be nice.

[Nate tha' Great]

This seems like a pretty easy fold. He's check-raising into a protected pot and we don't even have top pair. Nor is the turn card a good semibluffing card. I think I could fold this even online.

[Clarkmeister]

Maybe it's because I've played with Mike when he's in full-on "mike l." mode, but I don't think he could ever fold this here. I think many players will checkraise literally any pair in this spot as well as flopped flush draws. A hand like Ad4d is particularly likely.