Folding aces, preflop, in a cash game

[tshak]

This is a clear +EV call, unless 88 litterally had no money of interest in the pot (i.e. 1BB). Either way if you fold you're passing on a very +EV gamble (off the top of my head a ~20% net profit).

[RoundTower]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey, I know that play. Happend at a table that I was at during a tournament July 5th, in Phoenix (Gila River Casino, to be exact).

The dude with the 88 got his third 8...

Are we talking the same tourney?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. 4,000 miles away.

I forgot about the rake making it possible to fold in a slightly larger set of circumstances.

[Dan Mezick]

Not enough information to answer. Please refer to Harrington Volume 1 pages 16-17. I understand this is a cash game; even so many of the same questions apply.

How many chips does each caller have? How many chips do you have?

The main question here (not addressed by Harrington Volume 1 pages 16-17) is HOW MANY DRAWS you are facing. If it is more than 3 (2 to be "safe") you are probably gambling; otherwise you can play.

For example 3 players go all in.

One has KQs. (hearts)

One has 9Ts. (diamonds)

Another has AJo. (A of hearts)

Still want to play this AA hand preflop? Probably not. The chips (who you have covered; who has you covered) will probably inform decision-making here.

Another bad scenario is when 2 of the draws contain an A.

Now you have no outs to improve except for remote nut straight andnut flush outs. Remote because the callers are holding high cards typically, the ones you need for the straight or flush results.

See also:

Cash HoldEm--Mid Position QQ Preflop-- Loose Passive Table

[bobman0330]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1084295
pokenum -h kh qh - td 9d - ah jc - as ac
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kh Qh 157966 14.55 926223 85.29 1819 0.17 0.146
Td 9d 238728 21.98 845461 77.85 1819 0.17 0.220
Jc Ah 46563 4.29 1029307 94.78 10138 0.93 0.047
As Ac 632613 58.25 443257 40.82 10138 0.93 0.587

[K C]

I guess since you're seeing their cards the only thing other than AA that you'd consider folding is if one of the players is Mike Caro and it's joker's wild at his home game and he has one [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

In a tournament there are actually situations where you would want to fold AA but they're rare - not the one about getting bumped off in that other post of mine but situations like you're the low stack one off the money and two big stacks are all in.

KC

[Dan Mezick]

This looks good on paper, doesnt it? And it is a surface analysis. Go deeper.

(I'm answering within the question structure posed by the thread.) I'm choosing to depict 3 quality draws and show why it's OK to fold aces in this scenario.

Each hand ALONE is a big dog to aces. BUT: each of these probabilities must be added to see what you are really facing. The sum of each hand's percentages represents the percentage chance that at least one hand in this field of 3 draws will be successful in beating you. The aces are not up against a single hand; they are up against 3 hands that form one composite opponent. Is there any other way to look at it?

The fact one of the draws contains one of your outs (an Ace) makes this worse than it needs to be to certainly be OK folding. In truth 3 or more quality draws without an ace is probably enough to consider folding.

The total is 40.82 (the 3 draws) vs. 58.25 (the aces).

To quote Sklansky, THeory of Poker, page 225:

..."when the FAVORED play has VERY BAD consequences when it is wrong, and the less-favored play has only slightly bad consequences when it is wrong, IT MAY BE CORRECT to choose the less-favored play."

Fold and lose whatever is in the pot from yuou so far. Avoid this near-coin flip and seek a better spot.

One exception would be the drama motivation for playing. If you seek drama, by all means get all your money in.

If you want to leave a (consistent) winner, seek 2:1 favorite situations and try to actively avoid anything less.

Typical games populated with typical opponents provide a many, MANY opportunities to get in all your money a 2:1 favorite.

I encourage much more discussion of this specific scenario.

[tylerdurden]

[ QUOTE ]
Not enough information to answer.
...

The chips (who you have covered; who has you covered) will probably inform decision-making here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. There is MORE than enough information to answer the question. You see EVERYONE else's cards before you have to act.

Stack sizes are a VERY minor factor in making this decision, and in most (possibly all) cases can be ignored alltogether. It's a cash game, as you acknowlege. Look at the cards, if it's +EV, push, if -EV, fold. Easy.

[tylerdurden]

[ QUOTE ]
The fact one of the draws contains one of your outs (an Ace) makes this worse than it needs to be to certainly be OK folding. In truth 3 or more quality draws without an ace is probably enough to consider folding.

The total is 40.82 (the 3 draws) vs. 58.25 (the aces).


[/ QUOTE ]

If you fold this, you're a moron, and it's not even close. Unless your stack is your entire bankroll, or a significant portion of it, in which case, you're a bigger moron.

You're a 58% favorite to beat THREE other opponents! You're not going to find many places with more +EV than that.

[bobman0330]

[ QUOTE ]
This looks good on paper, doesnt it? And it is a surface analysis. Go deeper.

(I'm answering within the question structure posed by the thread.) I'm choosing to depict 3 quality draws and show why it's OK to fold aces in this scenario.

Each hand ALONE is a big dog to aces. BUT: each of these probabilities must be added to see what you are really facing. The sum of each hand's percentages represents the percentage chance that at least one hand in this field of 3 draws will be successful in beating you. The aces are not up against a single hand; they are up against 3 hands that form one composite opponent. Is there any other way to look at it?

The fact one of the draws contains one of your outs (an Ace) makes this worse than it needs to be to certainly be OK folding. In truth 3 or more quality draws without an ace is probably enough to consider folding.

The total is 40.82 (the 3 draws) vs. 58.25 (the aces).

To quote Sklansky, THeory of Poker, page 225:

..."when the FAVORED play has VERY BAD consequences when it is wrong, and the less-favored play has only slightly bad consequences when it is wrong, IT MAY BE CORRECT to choose the less-favored play."

Fold and lose whatever is in the pot from yuou so far. Avoid this near-coin flip and seek a better spot.

One exception would be the drama motivation for playing. If you seek drama, by all means get all your money in.

If you want to leave a (consistent) winner, seek 2:1 favorite situations and try to actively avoid anything less.

Typical games populated with typical opponents provide a many, MANY opportunities to get in all your money a 2:1 favorite.

I encourage much more discussion of this specific scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the craziest thing i've ever heard. I mean, i feel like this is a put-up job.

First of all, it doesn't matter how many opportunities I'll have to put my money in as a 2-1 favorite. I'm going to do all those, plus this one. (Plus a bunch of other close gambles that would no doubt make you very sad. I might even raise many limpers with KQs in a limit game!)

Second, this edge is much bigger than a 2-1 edge. You put in, say, $100 to win $300 almost 60% of the time. For those of you keeping track, that means you win about $140 dollars on this play... I mean, damn. Compare the EV of having only the SB call, flop comes AA2, SB pushes with 72 and you call. Your EV = $100, barely 2/3 as good as the all-in scenario.

Thirdly, having AJ in there is a huge boost for you, as it is more or less dead money. (AJ more than many other aces, since Js are already good for the T9)

Fourthly, Sklansky should punch you for perverting ToP in that way.
CORRECT APPLICATION:
Probable outcome wins a small amount
Unlikely outcome loses a ton... fold
INCORRECT APPLICATION:
Probable outcome wins a TON
Unlikely outcome loses a small amount... fold

Fifthly, like so many things described by the term "coin-flip." 58-42 is not a coinflip. Good baseball teams generally win about 58% of their games. It's a BIG EDGE.

Sixthly, I bet you're actually a winning player, but it's only because Foxwoods games are SO SOFT.

[Dan Mezick]

(For those of you that think there was enough information to answer this question, I want to invite you to our little game on Tuesday nights. See the bottom of this post for details. PM me if you want to play.)


Now, let's add some NECESSARY chip information. Let's assume 2 of the all-ins have all your chips covered, and you will be going broke if you call this with AA and lose.

Yes the play is +EV. Fine. Yes the pot is offering a good price (let's assume 3.5:1 for the time being) for taking the 3:2 semi-coin-flip here. Fine. Yes this makes sense to play.

But for all your money? In a game where the typical game against typical opponents ("this game") is offering 2:1 odds-to-win with decent pot odds, repeating 1 or 2 times every 2 or 3 orbits? In a game where the implied odds can be huge from time to time against a single opponent? Do I push in ALL my chips as a 3:2 favorite in a game like that? No.

But I invite you to my game if you like to do that yourself.

If we were discussing Limit, yes all the arguments for playing are good ones. In Limit you grind out your edges and you have to grind each of them. Note that in Limit the likelyhood of going broke in any spot you choose is fairly remote.

Because you can go completely broke in one hand, and because the game offers dozens of places (over hours) to get your money in as a minimum 2:1 favorite, you must adjust your minimum standards "up" in terms of estimated odds-to-win when picking spots to play for all your money.

3:2 looks pretty good. The poster who says "Yes I will take ALL the 2:1 opportunties AND this 3:2 opportunity" in my view is in error.

Why take a 3:2 for all my money when I can pick from a large list of spots where I am a 2to1, 3to1, 4to1, 5to1 favorite?

If you say "pot odds" you miss the key point about the avoiding risk-of-ruin in cash NLTH. And you're invited.

We are always looking for players that like to get all their money in the pot in 3:2 spots, in a game that consistently offers 3,4,5to1 spots to do the same.

Is 3:2 a "relative coin flip" to 3,4,5:1 spots? You know the correct answer.

In any event, if you are in CT, and you really really like the 3:2 scenario with aces, I sincerely invite you to our Tuesday night tourney NLTH $40 buyin with rebuys weekly event. The field is about 90 people. If you are in Southern CT and you like the aces here, PM me and I'll get you in.
The tourney starts at 7:30 and the cash game (populated by tourney bust-outs) starts around 9:00. Come on down ! WHen you PM me, state that you like 3:2 for all your money in NLTH cash, when that same game is providing numerous 3,4,5to1 spots nearly every orbit.