Take the coinflip or wait?

[Crispyk]

30+3 SNG on pokerstars, 4 players left. I have 1900 and am in 3rd. The 4th place player on the button raises all in for 1550. I'm in small blind with pocket 4's i figure i'm at least a coin flip given the way he's been playing in the bubble. If i fold i'm now in last place. And the big stack in the big blind has been folding around trying to fold into the money so i didn't assume he was going to call the all in. If i call and win i have a shot at winning the tourney as the other two stacks are tied around 3500. Do you take the coin flip or wait for a better shot.

[TylerD]

You don't say how big the blinds are, but I'd still fold, you're a coin flip at best if he has a higher PP it would be a disaster. I might move in with 44 but rarely call.

[Crispyk]

The blinds were 300-600.... sorry.. knew i forgot something.

[fat_nutz]

I'd call... you have to call 1250 for a shot at 2450, so the 2:1 you're getting in chips makes the coinflip (actually slight edge for you) worthwhile. If he has a higher pair, take your lumps--at least you're on the button next and can choose any of the next three hands to try to double through. At least equally likely as the higher pair, I'd say, is that he's trying to steal w/ K4/3/2 or A4/3/2, in which case you're better than a coinflip.

[benfranklin]

[ QUOTE ]
I might move in with 44 but rarely call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. This looks to me like the gap principle at work: 44 might be good to move all-in here if you were first to act, but not to call an all-in.

[Crispyk]

Well i did call... He had been throwing in very often to take the blinds donw. he hadn't showed a hand yet.. I assumed he had 2 overcards to my pair.. which he did.. he had Q10... he hit a Q on the flop and won.... but as i thought about it i realized that i did make a mistake. I agree with the comments about how i should have moved in with it but never called an all in with it. Tyler made the point that he could have just as easily had a better pocket pair.. and frankly that didn't even cross my mind... The coinflip was the absolute best scenario. I guess what was crossing my mind was the fact that if i had won the coinflip i would have been in contention to win.. in this case i think i had dollar sign in my eyes and not a clear thought in my head [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] thanks for all the advice!

[gojacketz]

Do you have 1900 before you post the SB? How soon will the blinds go up again?

I agree with fat nutz, if you can reliably put him on two overcards 80% of the time, I think I would call (or push in) getting almost 2-1 on the call.

With 1600 left and the blinds coming again in 3 hands, you gotta do something and do it fast.

Not sure if you can apply the gap concept here, you have 6 or 7 hands left (maybe less if the blinds are about to go up) before the blinds maul you, you have to make a stand and make it soon. I hate staking the whole SNG on a pair of 4s, but don't have a lot of choice.

Gojacketz

[fat_nutz]

And just as I said, calling works! (At least this time.) I got the A-junk I was looking for, and the 4s held up:

***** Hand History for Game 578555913 *****
200/400 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 3555486) - Thu May 06 02:01:23 EDT 2004
Table Table 11491 (Real Money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: SteveRossi (2225)
Seat 4: taekwondo (3075)
Seat 7: brettcu05 (700)
Seat 9: fat_nutz (2000)
brettcu05 posts small blind (100)
fat_nutz posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to fat_nutz [ 4s, 4c ]
SteveRossi folds.
taekwondo could not respond in time.(disconnected)
taekwondo folds.
brettcu05 raises (600) to 700
brettcu05 is all-In.
fat_nutz calls (500)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 7s, 2c, 6s ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Qc ]
** Dealing River ** : [ Kd ]
Creating Main Pot with $1400 with brettcu05
** Summary **
Main Pot: 1400 |
Board: [ 7s 2c 6s Qc Kd ]
SteveRossi balance 2225, didn't bet (folded)
taekwondo balance 3075, didn't bet (folded)
brettcu05 balance 0, lost 700 [ 3d Ad ] [ high card ace -- Ad,Kd,Qc,7s,6s ]
fat_nutz balance 2700, bet 700, collected 1400, net +700 [ 4s 4c ] [ a pair of fours -- Kd,Qc,7s,4s,4c ]

[Mackas]

Unless Bubbleboy is constantly raising all in by this stage I think you should probably fold and hope for a better spot. As already stated you might move all in with the hand hoping for no call and looking at a possible coinflip if you are called but calling all in with it even with good pot odds is debatable because you're as good as bust if you lose.

On the other hand I don't think a call is that bad anyway and if he is being constantly aggressive it might even be right. To that end I wouldn't worry about this call that much. At worst it was marginal and may have been right.

For example if he has been constantly raising all in, as some begin to do in this situation, then I think it depends largely on how the other two big stacks are reacting to his aggressive all ins. If they are constantly folding, sooner rather than later you are going to be the shortstack and have to make a stand anyway so this might be as good a spot as any. Furthermore if you fold here suddenly he has 2400, you only have 1900 (or worse if you were counting your SB as part of your stack). His aggressive raising will keep the pressure on (he's not likely to let up while all three of you keep folding), the blinds are coming round again in two hands, you're the shortstack, you're suddenly looking to make a stand, and 44 doesn't look so bad.

Finally if on the other hand the other two are still getting involved, you might be better to wait and hope they do your dirty work for you.

Reckon I've onctradicted myself slightly here but hope you can make some sense of what I'm trying to say.

[Mackas]

I should have added I have occasionally overplayed small pairs myself in some bubble situations but I think this might be different given the high blinds and the other reasons above. On the other hand I've seen more people bust out with a whimper after the blinds caught up with them in situations like this than people who take a stand before it reaches the stage where they're screwed even if they do double through.