limit O8 - betting top two pair or a set on the turn (or not)

[benwood]

If I were playing this in a live game where I know the players,betting the turn would be the best play for me,because when I missed my boat on the river,I am confident that I could judge whether or not to call based on my knowledge of the player who bets(1.Is he likely to be holding those particular cards?2.Wht is his bluffing propensity in this position?)
If I were playing on the internet with unknown players & I had been in the game for an hour ,I would still bet,& I would have to call more often because of my uncertainty,resulting in a lower ev on average.
If this were my first hand in the same internet game,I have to admit that I would still bet the turn,expecting to check/call the river.Even then,if a river card produced a possible straight that would be completed by cards that most Omaha players are likely to keep,& if a player bet from early position into several other players,it would be an easy fold.
Any help? Probably not.

[chaos]

[ QUOTE ]
However, if Hero does plan to call a bet on the river when he misses his draw, then
• 8/44, Hero scoops and wins 4 big bets fresh money
• 5/44, Hero splits and wins 1 big bet fresh money, and
• 31/44, Hero loses 2 big bets fresh money.


[/ QUOTE ]
When you call on the river you do not always lose. Sometimes you pick off a bluff. So the last number needs to be adjusted. Let's say you catch a bluffer about 20% of the time when you call on the river. (I assumed half these times you scoop.) The numbers would then look like :

• 8/44, Hero scoops and wins 4 big bets fresh money
• 5/44, Hero splits and wins 1 big bet fresh money, and
• 3/44, Hero scoops by catching a bluff and wins 4 big bets fresh money
• 3/44, Hero scoops by catching a bluff and wins 1 big bet fresh money
• 25/44, Hero loses 2 big bets

Under this scenario betting the turn is profitable.
Did I miss something?

[chaos]

I think one of the keys to playing the turn is to be aggressive with all of your good hands. If you bet your wrap straight draws strongly in this same spot, it will be harder for your opponents to put you on a specific hand. They will not know whether you have a made hand like a set or two pair, or are betting on the come with a straight or a flush draw. This may cut down on people bluffing into you when you have position. When you are out of position I think you have to check and call.

[Phat Mack]

Very nice post. I think I'd intuited some of this, but had never seen it worked it out as you have done. A lot of my pre-river betting is done in consideration of these river decisions: something else to consider is hero's read on button, button's likely river play, and whether there is any chance of getting button out with a turn raise.

[Buzz]

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The two things I got from these sites is this:

1. Don't be afraid of what your opponenets MIGHT have, make your bets and calls and plays based on the probable RANGE of hands.

2. Put money in the pot when you are ahead and have a superior hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Will - It's hard to disagree with that advice.... and yet....

[ QUOTE ]
I think, keeping that in mind, leading the betting, and perhaps even raising with this particular hand is the way to go. Why?

1. You MIGHT have the best hand. Top two is a very respectable holding though no rock crusher. You may be up against wraps and such.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you probably do have the best hand. (Thus the enigma).

[ QUOTE ]
2. You certainly have the best draw. Any Q or non-pairing diamond will give you the nuts high.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. You seem to have a very decent, if not the best, draw.

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3. It is not possible for anyone to be freerolling on you. No matter how bad it is, you can still scoop this pot.

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Yes.

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For that reason, I think you are overthinking this a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Possible.

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What are the likely hands you are against.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very hard to tell. You can put a couple of cards in a tight player's hand, ace-deuce maybe, but the other two cards may be almost random. And various opponents may be playing all kinds of stuff. I wouldn't use simulations where you have to put four cards in each opponent's hand.

[ QUOTE ]
....The truth, however, lies somewhere in the middle.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very hard to tell. In simulations I have run where you don't have to stipulate all four cards an opponent holds, it seems that top two pair plus a nut flush draw (which seems very strong) should not bet the turn.

And the reason is if you get enough money into the pot, you're almost surely going to be calling a single bet on the river even though you don't improve your top two pair. Well... I suppose an alternative would be to fold to a bet on the river, but weak play like that opens other doors for your opponents.

I'm thinking maybe we should use game theory principles here. Not sure exactly how.... maybe merits more thought....

[ QUOTE ]
With that being said, on this particular hand, let's look at the three MAIN reasons to bet or raise:

1. Because you have the best hand and want to get more money in the pot. That could certainly be the case here. It is THE major point that Steve Badger keeps making on his site. You put money in when you have the best of it, not when you have a lock. 2 different things (and, I know you know this).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's probably generally true. But I don't know as it's always true. Who am I to disagree with Steve Badger, and yet...

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2. To get better hands to fold. Boy, if you can get a set of Tens, sixes, or threes to fold here that is a major coup. They just might do it if you put in a raise

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you completely on this point. Getting a better hand to fold is the major reason to raise, in my humble opinion.

[ QUOTE ]
3. To manipulate the pot so it is SOOOO big that you can't fold. By that I mean, there are ALOT of scare cards as you pointed out. By making the pot bigger you absolutely lock yourself into calling on the river which is probably the best thing to do, as your entire post points out, except in unusal circumstances.

[/ QUOTE ]

That just doesn't make sense to me. Getting stuck if I can avoid it just seems foolish to me.

[ QUOTE ]
P.S. - For what it is worth, I'm not sure we should have voluntarily entered the pot with this hand. It's not total garbage, but it has some ugly gaps.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Of course you're going to play it in the unreaised big blind. I also would probably play it for one bet from the button and maybe even the cut-off and small blind, depending. I'm not advising anyone to play (or not play) the hand.

[ QUOTE ]
P.P.S - this is a troubled turn card for us, but what flop and turn were we hoping for? It doesn't get a whole lot better for us than this. This hand build top two pair and nut flush draws. We got it and now seem to be complaining a little.

[/ QUOTE ]

The flop was not ideal, but was good - clearly good enough to continue.

The turn was bad, but clearly not bad enough to fold.

I'm no complaining. (And the hand itself is from a recent post by Tex that got me thinking).

I'm wondering about the advisability of initiating money into this pot with this hand/board/#opponnets/history. At first glance it seems like you should. And yet I think you do better, on average, when you don't.

At any rate, thanks for your input.

Buzz

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
when I missed my boat on the river,I am confident that I could judge whether or not to call based on my knowledge of the player who bets

[/ QUOTE ]

Ben - Good point. However, against tough opponents, it's really hard to tell, and if the pot gets big enough you should probably be more inclined to call.

[ QUOTE ]
Even then,if a river card produced a possible straight that would be completed by cards that most Omaha players are likely to keep,& if a player bet from early position into several other players,it would be an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another good point except that folding top two pair on the river, although perhaps easier under certain conditions, is not necessarily correct. You do encounter bluffing in this game, and when low is possible, you can't always tell if the bet is coming from a rivered nut straight or a rivered nut low (or neither or both).

Anyhow, thanks for the input.

Buzz

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
When you call on the river you do not always lose. Sometimes you pick off a bluff. So the last number needs to be adjusted. Let's say you catch a bluffer about 20% of the time when you call on the river. (I assumed half these times you scoop.) The numbers would then look like :

• 8/44, Hero scoops and wins 4 big bets fresh money
• 5/44, Hero splits and wins 1 big bet fresh money, and
• 3/44, Hero scoops by catching a bluff and wins 4 big bets fresh money
• 3/44, Hero scoops by catching a bluff and wins 1 big bet fresh money
• 25/44, Hero loses 2 big bets

Under this scenario betting the turn is profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Chaos - Thanks.

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Did I miss something?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. I did.

Thanks again.

Buzz

[Buzz]

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A lot of my pre-river betting is done in consideration of these river decisions

[/ QUOTE ]

Mack - Seems wise.

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something else to consider is hero's read on button, button's likely river play, and whether there is any chance of getting button out with a turn raise.

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Yes. Thanks.

Buzz

[Buzz]

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I don't think the 2 pair is a hard decision, fairly easy fold most of the time.

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Knoll - For me it depends. Not always an easy fold for me.

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My only point was that if you check on the turn and hit the river there is a more than likely chance of not getting any more "new money" in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point. I think it depends very much on how many opponents will be matching your bet.

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I was just curious if you had any numbers or theories contradicting this stragedy?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. I'm still probably betting the turn here. I was just having some second thoughts about the advisability of doing that, depending on varous factors. My ideas on this need more thought before posting again.

I've gotten some clear insight from reading the repiles in this thread.

Thanks for your input.

Buzz

Thank you for your insight. I truely appreciate your views and thoughts. You're one of the few on here that gives an honest and valuable opinion. Much thanks and more to come I'm sure.