Save a bet on the river with a set?

jetaudio77 · #1 03-24-2005, 12:12 AM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

The UTG+1, UTG+2 and MP3 are pretty passive loose players while BB is a lil more aggro then them but still pretty passive postflop.

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

 I called because I felt with 2 limpers, and more people to come I could get some action if i flopped a set or something. This may be illogical thinking though. 

Flop: (6 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP3 folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

 Here I had to think for a second about a raise and a reraise directly in front of me, but I figured I could still be ahead and if the board paired I'd also be fine. 

Turn: (9.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

 Standard raise part. 

River: (13.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls.

By now though I'm staring down 3 diamonds so two diamonds or a 7 beat me. Should I have just sucked this one up and folded and saved a BB or does the size of the pot justify calling?

Final Pot: 15.50 BB

Any comments are welcome [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

FishHooks · #2 03-24-2005, 12:14 AM

no way you should ever fold this, call it.

string4 · #3 03-24-2005, 12:58 AM

I'm far from an expert, but no way i'd fold this with that big of a pot.

Firefly · #4 03-24-2005, 01:05 AM

If you fold, I will eat your babies. Seriously, I hate that river card as much as you do, but you gots to call

KaiShin · #5 03-24-2005, 01:10 AM

Standard.

cardcounter0 · #6 03-24-2005, 01:14 AM

So if you hit a set and raise the flop, all I have to do is bet the river on a scare card to get you to lay it down?

Interesting ...

MagicFlea · #7 03-24-2005, 01:29 AM

yeah this isn't even close... people love to pretend they hit flushes

bottomset · #8 03-24-2005, 01:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
yeah this isn't even close... people love to pretend they hit flushes

[/ QUOTE ]

its also 4to a straight, and he did bet into 3players including someone who bet/raised at every opportunity .. you will lose this hand about 90% of the time, occasionally he'll have T9, 98 and you'll take it down

its very rare for someone to bluff in this situation, you still have a moderate hand thats prob worth a call here, but its no slam dunk major ev play you are passing up here

I still call, just its a lot closer than some of the above make it out to be

Alex/Mugaaz · #9 03-24-2005, 02:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yeah this isn't even close... people love to pretend they hit flushes

[/ QUOTE ]

its also 4to a straight, and he did bet into 3players including someone who bet/raised at every opportunity .. you will lose this hand about 90% of the time, occasionally he'll have T9, 98 and you'll take it down

its very rare for someone to bluff in this situation, you still have a moderate hand thats prob worth a call here, but its no slam dunk major ev play you are passing up here

I still call, just its a lot closer than some of the above make it out to be

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that it's rare for people to bluff here. However, it's not uncommon for them to raise with 2 pair or an overpair (though i dont see any overpair possibiity here).

xenthebrain · #10 03-24-2005, 08:56 AM

Hey, you're getting 14.5 to 1 to call this bet.
You just have to win about 7% of the time (in this situation) to make this call profitable. But you will win it more often! That's an easy call