How Could He Make The River Call?

[popsy]

This is above my pay grade. It is a hand I observed on Pokerstars, involving one of the best players on Stars. Twin-caracas was CO with 5h4d. SB had AhKd. How could he possibly know the fives were good on the river?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (8 handed) converter

CO($1298.75)
Button ($1911)
SB ($1122)
BB ($2560.75)
UTG ($377)
UTG+1 ($220.50)
MP1 ($725)
MP2 ($552)

Preflop: TC is CO with 5h,4d . Fold to CO, who
bets $40. SB raises to $100, CO calls.

Flop: ($15) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(8 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $70</font>, CO calls $70.

Turn: ($155) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(8 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $120</font>, CO calls $120.

River: ($395) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(8 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $832 (All-In)</font>, CO calls $832.

Final Pot: $2059

[TheWorstPlayer]

Read on the player and overbet on the river. Unless BB is re-raising pocket 10s, the best hand he can have here is AA. Is this the river bet you would make with AA (without a strong reading on your opponent)?

[dtbog]

Well, mathematically, he's actually asserting by his call that he thinks his five is good about 40% of the time.

I think this is a reasonable assumption, if you can think of the situations where someone who raises his own blind pushes on the river in this hand.

As previous poster said, does AA push on the river here? This may be linear thinking, but the only hands I see pushing here are A7, a full house, or a bluff. A7/boat push here hoping to be called by a weaker seven.

I actually played a hand today that was very similar. I held a very weak hand in position (93s, actually), flopped top pair, and called a small bet on the flop, a small bet on the turn, and a push on the river. Turn and river were the same card... running sixes. I called the huge overbet on the river because I couldn't see my opponent making that bet for value.

Sometimes, assumed folding equity isn't there because the bet simply doesn't make sense as a value bet.

Of course, if you're playing against a tricky player who thinks a few levels in advance, maybe he does have the goods more than 40% of the time?

-DB

[Shaun]

The guy with AK is not betting his hand hard enough after the flop. Then he decides to go all-in on the river, and that's a suspicious line. I think the CO makes a good read and the player holding AK is to blame for not betting his hand in a convincing manner.

No one likes to call an all-in with 45 in that spot, but he obviously had sufficient reason to do so and it was the right read.

[partygirluk]

Preflop: TC is CO with 5h,4d . Fold to CO, who
bets $40. SB raises to $100, CO calls.

Flop: ($15) ????

[doubleas]

The $70 flop bet followed by the $120 turn bet would make me think 54 is good too. I would think an overpair or TT would want to make a draw pay. The river doesn't seem to change anything. I've seen folks underbet the pot on the flop hoping to get reraised, but seldom do I see it on the turn as well, especially after it failed once and the board got a mit more scary adding some draws.

I don't think CO was drawing to 5 outs...he had to think he was ahead. He just had the balls to carry through with his read.

[iceman5]

Twin-Caracas is obviously pretty good. He wins alot of money. But Ive seen him make calls like this all the time and be wrong. Hes a calling station. He ALWAYS thinks he has a good read and makes calls like this. When hes right he looks like a genius of course.

[BK_]

i was wondering if you made up the preflop action, but a 15 dollar flop pot isnt even possible anyways

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Twin-Caracas is obviously pretty good. He wins alot of money. But Ive seen him make calls like this all the time and be wrong. Hes a calling station. He ALWAYS thinks he has a good read and makes calls like this. When hes right he looks like a genius of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 100% w/ this post.