($11 Pacific) Fold KK pre-flop?

It's like the 4th hand of the STT. Somehow I've managed to loose t100. That's not the point here. I'm in the BB, with KK. It's folded to Button who makes it t40. SB calls, I raise to t150. Button (has me covered) moves all-in. SB calls. Hero??

Is this one of the rare cases I should fold, or do I press Call and close my eyes?

[SammyKid11]

Insta-call. If someone has AA, tough. I suspect the majority of the time you're better than 50% to triple up. Don't even think about folding.

You shouldn't be nervous. Your going to win this ALOT.
Hope for these situations. And if he has aces, fire up another sng.
Shooby

Thanks voor de re-assurance. I did call it, and ofcourse Button showed AA (SB showed JJ), no one got help and I busted out. Problem was this happened to me twice yesterday, so I got a little worried.

[SammyKid11]

It's hard...but you can't play results-oriented poker. This happening to you twice in a day sucks -- but you have to look at long-term results. If EVERY time you're in that situation you were to call, you'll make more money over the course of 1000 such situations than if you were to fold each time.

[ QUOTE ]
It's hard...but you can't play results-oriented poker. This happening to you twice in a day sucks -- but you have to look at long-term results. If EVERY time you're in that situation you were to call, you'll make more money over the course of 1000 such situations than if you were to fold each time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know. I'm trying to look at the long term results. But it's kinda hard that my luck seems to be running out, just around the time I took the step up from the $5.50 to the $11 STT's. Twice getting my KK's cracked by AA's, and my AK by T7s (with two horrible calls by villain) doesn't help my confidence.

So I tried to regain some of it by posting here, which helps [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[SammyKid11]

Well, I feel your pain -- I have finally made my way out of 2 weeks worth of COLLLLLD cards (and I 8-table and play 30-35 sets per week...so that's a lot of tourneys and a lot of hands to be cold). All I can say is that you have to ignore the short-term, focus on improving, learning, and playing your best poker. Most of the time, you can only put your opponent(s) on a range of hands and determine whether you're ahead of his range.

Just as many times if you fold these kings you'll end up finding out that your opponents had AQ and 99. Play good poker, don't worry about the swings, make sure you're properly bankrolled for whatever level you're playing (and drop down a level if you're not br'd properly), post here often, read the threads and responses of posters far better than I am, and the cards will even themselves out over the long run.

Good luck.

Thanks, I'll try and stick through the bad times. I was running on a hot streak in the $5.50 STT's, had 25 buyin's for the $11 and thought I'd give them a go. As soon as I drop below the 20 buyin-mark (for the $11) I'll step back to the $5.50's. So far I'm a little below even, so no big worries. The level of players is a little better than at the $5.50's, that combined with my run of bad luck has kept me out of the money.

I'll keep on reading and posting my trouble-hands here, any help is appreciated! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[EnderW27]

Let's assume for the sake of argument we can narrow his hand holding down to two possibilities: AK or AA. He'll only go in with these two in this situation. Let's also assume you're beating the caller who has a lower pocket pair.

He has 12 possible AA combinations and 8 possible AK combinations so 60% of the time he'll have AA and 40% of the time he'll have AK.

Now, in that 60% of the time, you'll triple up ~18% and bust out 82%.
In the 40% you'll triple up a whopping 55% of the time and bust out 45%.

So the ev in the first instance is .18*3000 - .82 * 1000 = -280
And the ev in the second is .55*3000 - .45*1000 = +1200

(-280)*.6 + (1200)*.4 = a total ev of +312 chips. That's a lot.

So yeah, most of the time you'll be sent to the sidelines. But the rest of the time you'll absolutely dominate the table. And, on average, you'll come out ahead here.

And here's the greatest thing about these calculations: these ONLY calculate AA and AK. We didn't even discuss the odds he'd do that with AQ or 99 or he's drunk and trying to score big with his K7o. Your ev can only go up from my original estimates because of this.

There are not 12 ways to make AA.