JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?

[ QUOTE ]
A lower pair.

Most players will lead an ace on the river if they have AQ or AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously? Don't you think they would be betting that flop if they had 99-KK? Even passive players know to bet with overpairs. And not a lot of people raise 77 or lower UTG+2. I think A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is very likely here, and they may not bet their one pair because they are scared of the flush or a higher kicker. If you can fold when check/raised, you need to be good somewhat more than 33% of the time, since it's not real likely that both will call this river, and I'm really not sure you are.

Certainly not betting this isn't a giant leak, like someone stated. It's certainly a bigger leak to misplay this by bet/folding a winner or bet/calling when behind. I'd want a good read on my opponents to consider betting this.

[ QUOTE ]

You have much flawed logic my friend. I'm afraid you don't have much of an understanding of typical Party players. In your "Hands we're ahead of that call," you have to include almost any pair. This is a clear easy value bet, and it's not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree it’s not even close, betting is clearly wrong here. When we assign our opponents hands based on basic hand reading skills it is blatantly obvious we are not ahead ~35% of the time.

"You have to include any pair" A loose/passive opponent is never raising 22-88 (even 99 is very questionable) pf from UTG. It seems like you're conveniently forgetting the preflop raise. I believe my possible holdings analysis is quite accurate, and you have given me no reason to believe otherwise.

In my opinion, this is a very clear check.

[HajiShirazu]

I think betting is absolutely crazy. You would have to be against the two worst players in the world for a bet here to have value. Anybody who has played holdem for more than a couple of weeks automatically puts the 3 bettor on an ace or a big pair, the ace was the worst card in the world as crappy pairs probably will not call. Meanwhile an ace is an extremely likely hand for your opponents to have (in fact if I had to put UTG+2 on a hand, Ax would be it.)

While we will be called by worse hands here, i.e. 99, TT, pair of 8s, I think it's important to note that our opponents will not hold these hands enough times to justify betting.