JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?

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I know both of my opponents are passive, so if I get raised, it's an easy fold,

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I don't think this is necessarily true. I've seen plenty of weird river bets and raises and this pot is big enough that it would be sinful to laydown the best hand. I don't think calling a raise is spewing here. The passive fishies can be unpredictable. A lot of times they are more likely to just call if they hit their Ace since they a) don't like their kicker, b) are afraid of the flush, c) some other random reason.

While there is usually value in the bet, against multiple opponents there is also value in checking and calling to snap off a bluff.

I will bet this river a lot, but I am usually calling a raise. I will check/call a fair percentage of the time.

I am never laying this down in a 10BB pot for a single bet on the end in the game you describe.

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I would without a doubt fold to a raise. Just based on how the hand was played out, these opponents are not maniacs, and I don't think 10-1 is even close to the odds you would need to call a raise here. I've seen people bluff in this type of situation almost never, especially in a 3 handed pot. Also he cant check/call because he is closing the action.

BTW were you at Wizards on Tuesday? I was seat 5 playing from about 5pm-9pm.

[BigBrother]

Seat 2 from about 6:15-7:30.
I thought that might be you.

I sat from about 9:30-11 as well but you had left by then.

No real memorable hands except for the guy whose A-high flush was cracked by the straight-flush on the last deal to qualify for High-hand (beating out the same guy's previous quad K's).

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Seat 2 from about 6:15-7:30.
I thought that might be you.

I sat from about 9:30-11 as well but you had left by then.

No real memorable hands except for the guy whose A-high flush was cracked by the straight-flush on the last deal to qualify for High-hand (beating out the same guy's previous quad K's).

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That hand was incredible. Probably the worst beat I've ever seen especially because of the circumstances. The guy in seat 9 was on fire. Earlier, in a capped flop pot, he had bottom pair and caught runner runner Qs for top fullhouse to beat a flopped set.

I think the only hand we played was when i check raised you on the A high flop when you had KK. I should have just called.

I know that I am in the minority here but I check on through. If the 1/2 at party is anything like 3/6 or 4/8 live. These players will play any suited ace and call to the river. I can EASILY see UTG+2 having AK, AQ, or AJ here and waiting for something good to happen. Especially if their A is a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I don't think you are good enough here to make this a value bet. The Ace will also scare off any overcalls that you MIGHT of picked up. I bet the K or Q though. Not the Ace.


LLL

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I know that I am in the minority here but I check on through. If the 1/2 at party is anything like 3/6 or 4/8 live. These players will play any suited ace and call to the river. I can EASILY see UTG+2 having AK, AQ, or AJ here and waiting for something good to happen. Especially if their A is a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I don't think you are good enough here to make this a value bet. The Ace will also scare off any overcalls that you MIGHT of picked up. I bet the K or Q though. Not the Ace.


LLL

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Yes it is very POSSIBLE that someone has an ace here. You still need to bet here because people wil call with a lot less than an ace.

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I know that I am in the minority here but I check on through. If the 1/2 at party is anything like 3/6 or 4/8 live. These players will play any suited ace and call to the river. I can EASILY see UTG+2 having AK, AQ, or AJ here and waiting for something good to happen. Especially if their A is a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I don't think you are good enough here to make this a value bet. The Ace will also scare off any overcalls that you MIGHT of picked up. I bet the K or Q though. Not the Ace.


LLL

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Yes it is very POSSIBLE that someone has an ace here. You still need to bet here because people wil call with a lot less than an ace.

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I understand. I think IN THIS CASE though it may not be a good Idea. What do you put UTG+2 on that raises preflop, plays this passively after the flop AND calls your bet when an Ace drops on the river?

LLL

A lower pair.

Most players will lead an ace on the river if they have AQ or AK.

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A lower pair.

Most players will lead an ace on the river if they have AQ or AK.

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This may be my undoing. I would expect a reaonable player to check raise here with the ace.

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A lower pair.

Most players will lead an ace on the river if they have AQ or AK.

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This may be my undoing. I would expect a reaonable player to check raise here with the ace.

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At 1-2 I don't think too many people get tricky with one pair.

[hellite]

I check this particular river; two passives, bottom card paired, an A on board and a three flush combined with the fact that original raiser ONLY raises 5% of his hands preflop makes this an EASY check! What hand does original preflop raiser raise that does not beat JJ and does not have at least one Ace in the hole? 1010 MAYBE (a true prayer). The reason he didnt bet his ace on the river is because he probably is not that good and the board is really scary for a passive who just hit his hand but could still be beat. He won't bet it, but he will call. Rarely will this player fold the winning hand on the river with the pot this size. Easy check! other dud might have anything including an Ace, trips or flush. If either player or both have busted draws (highly unlikely) they will fold and there is no value in that!