JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?

[Pog0]

Poker Network 1/2 10 handed

Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG+2 is loose passive with a pfr of 5%, af approx 0.6
MP1 is loose passive

PRE-FLOP
(2 folds), UTG+2 raises, MP1 calls, Hero 3-bets, (5 folds), UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

FLOP (3 players): 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (10 SB)
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

TURN (3 players) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6.5 BB)
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

RIVER (3 players) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (9.5 BB)
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero ?

I know both of my opponents are passive, so if I get raised, it's an easy fold, in fact, most aces of theirs wil probably just call. Despite that, I'm still not convinced that there's value in a bet here. What's calling me that I beat? 99 and TT if the raiser raises that. Any 8 or 6 from the coldcaller. But shouldn't I expect to see Ax, KK, and QQ more often than makes a bet here profitable?

Does anyone's decision change if the action is the same on a Q or K river?

[Cumulonimbus]

Bet this river if it's an Ace, King or Queen. You will get called by some pretty miserable cards. If you get checkraised, then your decision is read-dependent. Not betting this river is a hole in your game.

definate value bet here, somebody MIGHT have an ace, but somebody is equally likely to call you with king high at party 1/2.
bet/fold

I think there is very little value in betting here. You have to be good around 35% of time, since you're risking 1BB to win 2BB, to warrant betting. I doubt this is the case.

I'm having trouble assigning both players calling hands, which we're beating. In my opinion, UTG alone is ahead a significant amount of the time when he calls. Here are my thoughts on his hand combos:

UTG possible holdings
Hands we're ahead of that call:
99 6 combos
TT 6 combos
Total: 12 combos

Hands we're behind that call/raise
AA 3 combos
AK 12 combos
AQ 12 combos
AJs 2 combos
QQ 6 combos
KK 6 combos
Total: 41 combos

I also think TT and 99 can be discounted a bit, (as can AA, KK and QQ) as he'd likely bet/raise the flop with these holdings. Therefore, against UTG alone we are behind ~75% of the time. Throw in MP and I'm quite confident a bet here is -EV. I know of very few players that will call with K-high, etc. and thus did not take this into account.

EDIT: It's argueable that UTG may bet with a pair of As on the river, and thus the A pair combos should be discounted quite heavily. Though I believe it is highly probable he check/calls these hands given our passive read and the scary board.

[Cumulonimbus]

[ QUOTE ]
I think there is very little value in betting here. You have to be good around 35% of time, since you're risking 1BB to win 2BB, to warrant betting. I doubt this is the case.

I'm having trouble assigning both players calling hands, which we're beating. In my opinion, UTG alone is ahead a significant amount of the time when he calls. Here are my thoughts on his hand combos:

UTG possible holdings
Hands we're ahead of that call:
99 6 combos
TT 6 combos
Total: 12 combos

Hands we're behind that call/raise
AA 3 combos
AK 12 combos
AQ 12 combos
AJs 2 combos
QQ 6 combos
KK 6 combos
Total: 41 combos

I also think TT and 99 can be discounted a bit, (as can AA, KK and QQ) as he'd likely bet/raise the flop with these holdings. Therefore, against UTG alone we are behind ~75% of the time. Throw in MP and I'm quite confident a bet here is -EV. I know of very few players that will call with K-high, etc. and thus did not take this into account.

EDIT: It's argueable that UTG may bet with a pair of As on the river, and thus the A pair combos should be discounted quite heavily. Though I believe it is highly probable he check/calls these hands given our passive read and the scary board.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have much flawed logic my friend. I'm afraid you don't have much of an understanding of typical Party players. In your "Hands we're ahead of that call," you have to include almost any pair. This is a clear easy value bet, and it's not even close.

[callmedonnie]

I am mostly afraid of UTG+2 since he raised preflop. However, loose passive players make you money because they call your value bets often. While my first instinct is to check, I feel like a bet/fold line is appropriate here. What sucks is against passive players lots of times they call with a good Ace and I feel duped because their lack of aggression didn't tip me off at any point. But, they make you money and it is a frustration that comes with the game.

[SackUp]

bets. The A is likely just as scary to them as it is to you.

and a b/f line needs to be very read dependant as this is a perfect bluff card. You have to figure both of them are sticking around with any piece or waiting for a fourth club. You will fold the club draw but get paid off from the guy holding a pp or an 8 or 6.

[ QUOTE ]
The A is likely just as scary to them as it is to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a reason against value betting, as it makes it less likely that an opponent will call with a worse hand. This might be different if the opponent had been betting the whole way then checked on the A, but both opponents having been checking the whole time anyway. I agree with the rest of your logic, though.

[BigBrother]

[ QUOTE ]

I know both of my opponents are passive, so if I get raised, it's an easy fold,

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is necessarily true. I've seen plenty of weird river bets and raises and this pot is big enough that it would be sinful to laydown the best hand. I don't think calling a raise is spewing here. The passive fishies can be unpredictable. A lot of times they are more likely to just call if they hit their Ace since they a) don't like their kicker, b) are afraid of the flush, c) some other random reason.

While there is usually value in the bet, against multiple opponents there is also value in checking and calling to snap off a bluff.

I will bet this river a lot, but I am usually calling a raise. I will check/call a fair percentage of the time.

I am never laying this down in a 10BB pot for a single bet on the end in the game you describe.

[brettbrettr]

I'd bet. Like you said you migh get a call from an 8 or 99 or TT. What would also be dandy is folding out KK or QQ.