What goes through your mind here.

[lolita16]

You asked for opinions and I gave you mine. You know the old saying about opinions and a$$holes; everybody's got one.

My thinking as well as many of the other replies that I've read is along those same lines. You are giving your opponent the nuts if you fold here. I don't think that is reasonable especially in an online tourney. A play I see made a lot is to play a big pair sneakily (is that even a word) before the flop, then the push when the flop looks scary like this one.

I posted a question here a few weeks ago after just getting knocked out of a LOP tourney in which I had pushed all in with KK. I had the sickening feeling that I wanted to tell my opponent that I had him (likely the result of seeing the same dealer that had dealt me KK in a ring game the previous day which I correctly folded on the river when I was against AA, 3's full, and quad 4's). I was 99% sure he had QQ. I made the right play. I kept my mouth shut and let him agonize and finally call.

The point of this was not that he knocked me out of the tourney, it was that you have to get your money in when it's likely you have the best of it to ever win one of these big, multi table tournaments.

Beat yourself up about the play if you want to. My humble opinion is that it was still the correct play.

[Punker]

If you think that you can double yourself up with essentially 0% chance of going bust, its clearly better to give up this chance. I gave the absolute best case scenario having you at 25% chance of going bust here...there is far from a guarantee that you are in this good shape.

[ZeeJustin]

I'm not sure, but I think going all-in here is the best play. If I did go all-in, I would be hoping for a fold. Your chances of doubling might be even less than your chances of busting which sounds very bad, but there are 350 (approx) chips in the pot with your name on them the majority of the time.

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
Bottom line, I thinki a really good player can fold this hand, and I couldn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know I couldn't/wouldn't fold it. With the structure at Party and your puny 1000 chip start you don't have much choice here. You are simply a victim of circumstances here. His 250 bet with his hand was too big. You needed something very strong to play with him. Unfortunately you had something very strong. The 250 makes me think he wants ou to fold. So I see his play as either brilliant by trying to make it look like a steal play to induce a resteal or horrible by making top pair type hands fold. Either way you were in a crappy spot.

[Benal]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe I'm better than at least half the field in these tournaments, I believe I can accumulate chips without risking it all on a small favorite at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is key IMO, especially this early into the tourney.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think that you can double yourself up with essentially 0% chance of going bust, its clearly better to give up this chance.

[/ QUOTE ]
That isn't clear. In fact, it is wrong.

First, there is no riskless way to double up. I have had a lot of success while playing minor tournaments with horrible players, but I have yet to be doubled up by the risk-free chip fairy.

Second, even if there were a riskless way to double up tomorrow, that doesn't mean you want to avoid a 3:1 chance to double up now. You want to have more chips to double tomorrow. Even if you would only get 1 buy-in worth of chips for free later if you survive, it would be right to gamble now, since you would have 3 buy-ins 75% of the time, average 2.25, rather than a sure 2 buy-ins.

It is true that outstanding players should avoid small advantages attached to high variance. It is horribly wrong for players who are not crushing the field to give up a huge advantage like a 3:1 chance to double up. Cowardice is not a path to greatness. It is a common and exploitable weakness.

Fossilman quotes:

"...if the opportunity is +EV, that's what you're looking for. One of the biggest mistakes I see made by educated poker players is taking the risk reduction concept too far."

"If I know I have a VERY small edge in a big pot, in a no-rebuy event, then yes, I might fold and not risk going broke where I know better spots will come along. However, I don't fold in spots where my edge is significant, let's say 10%, just because I think a spot with a 15% edge is coming along later."

"If you won't GLADLY go all-in anytime you're a 3:2 favorite or thereabouts, then you will not enjoy as much tournament success as you could."

[serling]

I was in this same tournament and saw this play go down.

Without a raise preflop, I'd have no way of knowing he had KQ. I wouldn't have pushed at that point (shows you how weak I am), though I believe that's the correct move if more people in the pot. I would've smooth-called his raise and risk seeing the turn. And then if no spade and no Queen or King and no board pairing (all of these I would almost hope for as much as I would hope against, to give me a reason to get away from the hand), I would've pushed or check-raised him all-in. So either way, I'm also losing the hand.

The 250 raise is so suspect (if you or I were the one with KQ, I'm sure we would've made a similar raise... then again, we wouldn't have limped). Party being Party so early in the tourney, if he had raised all-in I would've had an easier time calling him.

I guess I'm not a good player either. I wouldn't even have considered Q8, though it makes more sense with his limp than KQ.


serling

[Tigerscott]

don't like that raise at all... to many possibilities...
any Qx he has open ender.
KQ he has nutz
any 2 spades he has four flush..

I say run while ya can...

[daryn]

4-1 favorite is actually 80% to win

[berya]

I would push. If he has me beat he has me beat. If he has flush/straight draw no big deal I can live with it as a small dog. Party structure is very fast and you don't have that much time to wait.

Hands you would be a healthy favorite against are: two pair, top pair/straight draw, trips, just top pair top kicker, some other garbage like AT this is Party after all. The worst of these is probably like 60:40 in your favor and there is no way I'm laying down as a 60:40 favorite. Not when there is 1300 people.

Yes there is a chance you could be drawing dead but there are always monsters out there.

One other thing. After you make this move other people will be aware that you can stick all your chips in an instant and will play a little more cautiously when you are in. And that's an advantage as well.