15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Button called 3 cold. While this is party poker i'd imagine this gets raised about 20% of the time here.

I actually think the 5:1 behind figure is higher. Limpreraises are usually about AA 40% KK 20% QQ 10% AK 20% Phil Fan with 77 - 99 10%.

Regardless, even considering the chance we may hit our long shot draw and lose makes this a fold.

Lemon Jelly - Experiment Number 6.

[/ QUOTE ]

i guess i just flat disagree with your numerical assesments here. aa 40% puts it at 3:2 against. i'd say its a longer shot than that given my experience. is there a way for me to see that from poker tracker? (i.e. what is the count of limpreraises to hands etc...?) further, there are no reads given. the button called 3 cold, yes. that makes me think he has precisely a low pair hoping to hit a set or something like QJs or KQs which i've also seen, not to mention A9s which a lot of people have trouble tossing away. he'll be looking to get to a showdown more than the 4:1 that you're giving against his raise. also, you started at 50% and now down to 20% so you must agree that the raise is a longer and longer shot than you initially supposed.

anyways, this may be a case where we just never end up converging as opposed to the usual case where i hang my head in shame, and you prove to be correct again and i learn one more thing from you....here i think my analysis is what i'd do and what i'd recommend night should do.

-Barron

EDIT: PS- what is with you're new sign outs? lemon experiment? and the first one?