-22- Do I have to call this?

[proell]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter

SB (t4495)
Hero (t1310)
UTG (t780)
Button (t1415)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG is all-in, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>. Hero?

I hate this because in the lower levels villian is not necessarily pushing any two here.
Villian is an average conservative player to this point.
I think it's reasonable to say that villian only pushes top 50% here, possibly even less.

Am I wrong? What kind of range do you put villian on here?

If he's pusthing top 50% I'm still not calling there. Give me a straight or flush possibility and I'll think about it with J high.

[pergesu]

If you think it's 50%, then calling is basically neutral, costing you 3 cents.

He'd have to be pushing 60% or more to make it worth it. Considering that he should only push with the top 50% anyway, folding is probably best.

[brimstone1]

I don't.

I don't make an auto-call with XY unless Villain has less than or exactly 2 BB.

I fold here, and push XY next hand.

I'm fairly sure you missed up on some sort of push window earlier, but I won't make any further comments since we can't know that with the info you're giving us.

edit: I'd make this call with QT+, K9+, A7+, 88+

[ChuckNorris]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think it's 50%, then calling is basically neutral, costing you 3 cents.

He'd have to be pushing 60% or more to make it worth it. Considering that he should only push with the top 50% anyway, folding is probably best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where did you get these numbers? I checked the ChipEV with Poker Calculator and did an ICM calculation with notepad, and both are clearly positive even if villain is pushing only 40% of his hands. Am I just tired or something? This is an autocall for me every time. You need to put T480 into a T1230 pot. Thats 1:2.6.

[helpmeout]

Easy call you gotta put another 480 into the pot making it 1710.

Meaning you gotta be worse than a 28% dog against his range of hands.

He will be pushing almost anything here, at worst you are probably a 35% dog against his range so I think its an easy call.

[luckycharms]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't.

I don't make an auto-call with XY unless Villain has less than or exactly 2 BB.

I fold here, and push XY next hand.

I'm fairly sure you missed up on some sort of push window earlier, but I won't make any further comments since we can't know that with the info you're giving us.

edit: I'd make this call with QT+, K9+, A7+, 88+

[/ QUOTE ]

You'd fold A6? You'd fold 77?!!?!! Are you insane????????????

[proell]

I think this is not quite as easy a call as many of us might think. Now, even if I were at 33% to win the hand, this particular scenario is a fold IMO.

Here's how I see the ICM numbers...

FoldEV = 17.8%

Call &amp; Win = 32.3%
Call &amp; Lose = 10.5%

So, if they are pushing 40% then we are roughly 67/33:

.323 * .33 = .10659
.105 * .67 = .07035

In this situation our Call$EV = ~.177, or 17.7%

So this hints that folding is superior to calling.

I think the real question here is the range of hands that we can put UTG on. I feel like the majority of players at the 22's are not pushing 60%+ hands here, which is pretty much what I would need to put them on in order to call.

Obviously any reads would greatly affect what range you could put them on, but let's assume we are pushbotting 12-tables and have none.

Who says UTG pushes more than 50% here, and who says less?
I'm really curious what your experiences are on this.

[Deuce2High]

I fold. What the math doesn't tell you is that if you fold you preserve your fold equity and you are also in position to steal your chips back from the original UTG pusher.

[proell]

Do you put UTG on a range, or do you just fold no matter what?

It's true we have some fold equity, but only if the bigstack decides to fold from the button before us. Otherwise we lose another t150 and are down to &lt; 3BB on the button. I think if UTG is pushing 60-70% then we can't pass up the +EV.