TT vs.a small army of coldcallers - Page 3

#21 12-22-2005, 06:28 AM

With his ordinary TAG numbers, I reason along these lines; with the preflop cold call it's quite obvious that he has either a PP (perhaps 99) or two big suited cards. His flop raise confirms this, at that point he most definitely has either a set or a club flush draw with like AJs-QJs (I don't see him cold call two bets preflop with a smaller suited connector). When he just calls the 3-bet it smells flush draw, but since it's HU he could still have a set, waiting to pop the turn.

The three of clubs really either gives him a boat or complete a flush, and again, as I don't see him cold call two bets with smaller clubs preflop, a fourth club on the river won't bail us out. And against a set we're drawing dead.

This is a really easy bet/fold, the question is what to do if he just calls. If he just calls, it could either mean he has a made flush and is afraid of us having a full house, or he is slowplaying. But even if we're certainly beat I still have a hard time folding for one additional bet, so I believe a check/call on the river is in order.

So, bet/fold the turn, and check/call the river.

#22 12-22-2005, 06:37 AM

I just realized that if Button has a made flush on the turn, then we actually have 4 outs to make a full house. So perhaps we should bet/call instead and check/fold UI; or, if it sucks that much being raised on the turn when we have outs to improve, perhaps a check/call is better.

Intuitively, I'd still bet/fold, but I don't know what's best anymore. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Clarkmeister · #23 12-22-2005, 11:38 AM

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Intuitively, I'd still bet/fold

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no no, no.

#24 12-22-2005, 11:55 AM

Isn't this a textbook wait for the turn situation? By 3-betting the flop, we're offering anyone with 4 or so outs the chance to correctly see the turn, and consequently the river. Furthermore, our equity changes drastically on the turn, depending on what card falls. Seems standard to me, and I'm surprised it hasn't been brought up. Thoughts?

#25 12-22-2005, 12:39 PM

Those of you that are saying bet/fold the turn, you know we have an overpair and a flushdraw, right? I would bet/call the turn and check/call the river if raised. It looks like button was on a flushdraw that hit, but I don't want to give a freecard to A9 on the turn.

MN_Mime · #26 12-22-2005, 01:36 PM

*grunch*

Your 2+2 TAG either made a hand on the flop, in which case he practically never has a better club or he pumped a draw which came in and was counterfeited (which also rarely has a better club).

He didn't cap the flop (already headsup) and all he did on the turn is bet a hand where you inexplicably slowed down (which I think happens with any 2 headsup).

The only hands you're afraid of here are 33, 43s, 99 (maybe), and A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9o. Everything else looks real peculiar to me.

I bet/call this river. I would have rather raised on the turn, though. You had redraws against the flush and even the boat and there was a pretty fair chance you were ahead.

MN_Mime · #27 12-22-2005, 01:44 PM

I think you're all missing villain's AF of 2.5 and intrepreting *Button* action as a monster. Don't you think AJs and even QJs would have found a PF 3-bet at this table?

99 is on the bubble, but why not cap the flop? After the flop raise you can't be sure the PFR is going to keep betting, especially if a scare card hits.

#28 12-22-2005, 01:48 PM

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I think I'd bet/fold the turn and check/fold the river. From your description, Villian knows better than to try to bluff.

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All right, after reevaluating this hand, I can see why bet/fold on the turn is bad. A bet/call is definitely better.

Is the river a check/call or a bet/call, though?

I'll admit, I'm a little unsure about the line on this hand now.

Azhrarn · #29 12-22-2005, 02:08 PM

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I just realized that if Button has a made flush on the turn, then we actually have 4 outs to make a full house.

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This is a very good point and bears repetition. Those extra two outs get overlooked sometimes.

MN_Mime · #30 12-22-2005, 02:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I just realized that if Button has a made flush on the turn, then we actually have 4 outs to make a full house.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very good point and bears repetition. Those extra two outs get overlooked sometimes.

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Also note that you have 2 outs to counterfeit a turned full house.

I think too much credit is being given to a tight and aggressive player who limped and not enough value is being assigned to this hand.