What was the last team to miss the NFL playoffs as good as SD?

[SammyKid11]

Seriously...looking at the schedule, it's difficult to see the Chargers making the playoffs. But they are a REALLY good football team (and I'm not just basing this on beating the Colts).

Edit to add:
Even while playing one of the toughest schedules in football, the Chargers have:
5 losses by an average of 2.8 points/loss
9 wins by an average of 16.55 points/win

The Chargers have lost some heartbreakers and have played an absolutely grueling schedule -- this combined with the relative ease of Jacksonville and Pittsburgh's schedules will likely work to cause SD to miss the playoffs.

But at this point in the season, I'd say the Chargers are easily a top 5 team in the entire league. Only the Seahawks are better than SD from the NFC...and only the Colts and (maybe) the Bengals and Broncos are better than them in the AFC...IMO.

So -- when was the last time a team this good didn't make the dance?

The seahawks definately are not better then the chargers, and neither are the bengals. Im not sure about the Broncos.

Its been a long time since a team has missed the playoffs at even 10-6 let alone 11-5. Mediocre teams have been getting into the playoffs from both conferences every year, so I dont think anyone can think of a non playoff team that is on the same level of this same charger team unless it was like in the 70s.

Dont sleep on Jax losing one of their last 2 games though they play to their competition every week,.

[scott8]

The Seahawks might not be better than the top 7 teams in the AFC.

[lastchance]

Oh, come on. Give them more credit than that. The Seahawks can take on Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Kansas City.

[rwperu34]

Since the playoffs expanded to 12 teams in 1990, the teams that went 10-6 that did not make it;

2003 Miami, 10-6
1991 Philladelphia, 10-6
1991 San Fransisco, 10-6

If San Diego goes 11-5 and does not make it, it would be the first time an 11-5 team does not make it.

In the Sagarin Ratings, San Diego is ranked 4th right now. IF they win out, the Chargers should at least mantain that rating. The highest ranked teams in the Sagarin ratings to not make the playoffs;

2004, Baltimore, 6th, 9-7
2003, Miaimi, 7th, 10-6
2002, Miami, 5th, 9-7
2000, Jets, 8th, 9-7
1999, Kansas City, 6th, 9-7

In 2001, the top 12 made the playoffs. In 1998, the top 11 made the playoffs, and lo and behold, the Arizona Cardinals, ranked 20th were the other team.

[Matt Williams]

If they are so good, why are they losing games? I can see losing 1 or 2 games to inferior teams, but 5?

[scott8]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, come on. Give them more credit than that. The Seahawks can take on Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Kansas City.

[/ QUOTE ]

KC is probably the 8th best team in the AFC, but I like where you are going.

I revise my statement to say the Seahawks are not as good as the top 8 teams in the AFC.

[Dynasty]

The 1985 Denver Broncos are the only 11-5 team to ever miss the playoffs. It's possible that fate will happen to an AFC team this year.

Among the Broncos losses that year were a 20-16 loss to the Rams, 30-26 loss to the Dolphins, 31-28 loss to the Raiders in overtime, and a 17-14 loss to the Raiders in overtime.


1985 AFC Standings (Two wildcard teams)

AFC East W L T % PF PA
Miami Dolphins 12 4 0 .750 428 320
New York Jets 11 5 0 .688 393 264
New England Patriots 11 5 0 .688 362 290
Indianapolis Colts 5 11 0 .313 320 386
Buffalo Bills 2 14 0 .125 200 381

AFC Central W L T % PF PA
Cleveland Browns 8 8 0 .500 287 294
Cincinnati Bengals 7 9 0 .438 441 437
Pittsburgh Steelers 7 9 0 .438 379 355
Houston Oilers 5 11 0 .313 284 412

AFC West W L T % PF PA
Los Angeles Raiders 12 4 0 .750 354 308
Denver Broncos 11 5 0 .688 380 329
Seattle Seahawks 8 8 0 .500 349 303
San Diego Chargers 8 8 0 .500 467 435
Kansas City Chiefs 6 10 0 .375 317 360

[SammyKid11]

[ QUOTE ]
If they are so good, why are they losing games? I can see losing 1 or 2 games to inferior teams, but 5?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're seriously underestimating the variance involved each week in football...and things that can be inferred from margin of victory/defeat. The Chargers have lost 5 games (which is not, you know, too bad...they're playing almost .660 football). Those games are:
28-24 to Dallas (a team in the playoff hunt)
20-17 at Denver (a team that's squarely in the playoffs)
24-22 to Pittsburgh (a team in the playoff hunt)
20-17 at Philadelphia (when TO was still there and before Donovan got so hurt that he required surgery...ie- when they played Philly, they were a playoff-bound team -- AND they lost on a fluke)
23-21 to Miami (and this is SINCE the Dolphins have been playing well)

So, five losses, ALL by 4 points or less, against five teams who are either in the playoffs, in the playoff hunt, or at the time of their game PLAYING like a playoff team. That doesn't exactly scream "bad team" to me -- maybe you can say "not clutch"...but not untalented. And since this thread is about if there's ever been a team as GOOD as the Chargers to miss the playoffs...this distinction is warranted.

Now, the nine wins:
45-23 vs. NYG (demolishing a virtual lock playoff team)
41-17 at New England (demolishing a playoff team, defending champs, on the road)
27-14 at Oakland (lackluster, yet comfortable win on the road over a mediocre-to-bad team
28-20 vs. KC (solid win vs. division rival and a team in the playoff hunt)
31-26 at NYJ (maybe their only decidedly unimpressive win)
48-10 vs. Buffalo (sure, the Bills are bad...but you beat an NFL team by 38 and you're doing something right)
23-17 at Washington (good road win vs. playoff contender)
34-10 vs. Oakland (waxing the floor with bad team at home)
26-17 at Indianapolis (probably the most impressive, gutsy win by any team this season over the super-dominant, previously-undefeated, undisputed best team in the NFL at their place)

That examination of their schedule ought to tell you all you need to know. First of all, their record is not at all bad. Second of all, when you factor in margin of victory/defeat, it's easy to see that this is a very good team.

Moreover, there's the strength of schedule. Jeff Sagarin has San Diego playing THE toughest schedule in the NFL. Compare that to the teams they're in direct competition with for the playoffs:
Pittsburgh (playing the 5th-toughest)
Denver (playing the 12th-toughest)
Jacksonville (playing the 16th-toughest)

Or even more of the lock AFC playoff teams:
Indianapolis (playing the 27th-toughest)
Cincinatti (playing the 19th-toughest)
New England (playing the 14th-toughest)

These things, when viewed from the standpoint of trying to assess a team's true talent level, have a major impact. You might see it as a simple matter of "if they're so good, why have they lost 5 games," but I'm sorry - that's a very sophomoric look at the Chargers' true worthiness of being involved in the playoffs. I'm glad it's about record in the NFL instead of BS stuff like power ratings, polls, and schedule strength...but in this isolated case, it'd be somehow wrong if a team of San Diego's caliber failed to get in.

Just as a sidenote...I don't, nor have I ever, even so much as lived in California. This isn't a homer-based view...I'm a Texans fan. While I appreciate the Chargers, I have nothing more tied to them than any other NFL team save Houston.

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
1991 Philladelphia, 10-6

[/ QUOTE ]

That Philly team was very good. Unfortunately for them they played in a division with the previous season champion (Giants), current season champion (Redskins), and next season champion (Cowboys). Yikes!