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#21
01-30-2005, 05:50 PM
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Re: looking for a bigger edge
yeah I'm satisified... Sometimes I just write like [censored] and that didn't help things.
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#23
01-30-2005, 08:07 PM
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Re: looking for a bigger edge
[ QUOTE ]
and its not even close. [/ QUOTE ] This is a terrible overstatement. It's certainly close, and definitely depends on the players involved. Rob
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#24
01-30-2005, 08:22 PM
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Re: looking for a bigger edge
How is it close?
Worse hands arent calling a turn raise or even a turn bet. You think a gutshot is going to call on the turn? What about overcards? bottom pair? weak 9? They arent calling a turn bet unless you are beat. Weakplayers will make small mistakes they dont make many big mistakes as you move up limits. What about a made straight or a set? You raise the flop he 3bets you can dump it. You raise the turn he 3bets you lose extra BBs by not probing on the flop.
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#26
01-30-2005, 08:33 PM
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Re: looking for a bigger edge
[ QUOTE ]
How is it close? Worse hands arent calling a turn raise or even a turn bet. You think a gutshot is going to call on the turn? What about overcards? bottom pair? weak 9? They arent calling a turn bet unless you are beat. Weakplayers will make small mistakes they dont make many big mistakes as you move up limits. What about a made straight or a set? You raise the flop he 3bets you can dump it. You raise the turn he 3bets you lose extra BBs by not probing on the flop. [/ QUOTE ] So a gutshot calls getting 7:1 on the flop with a PFR behind him? A weak 9 leads the flop on a draw heavy board rather than attempting a c/r to isolate overs? Overcards are calling preflop then calling this flop getting 7:1 with a PFR behind them, or they are leading out on the flop here? I'm more than willing to give more credit to a 10/20 player than a 1/2 player, but I can't put SB or BB on a range of hands here that make sense that would call or bet the flop but check/fold the turn, which is what you're suggesting. As long as you're raising a wide range of turn cards here, then the pithy "and it's not even close" argument is absolute bullshit. Rob
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#27
01-30-2005, 08:36 PM
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Re: looking for a bigger edge
[ QUOTE ]
How is it close? Worse hands arent calling a turn raise or even a turn bet. You think a gutshot is going to call on the turn? What about overcards? bottom pair? weak 9? They arent calling a turn bet unless you are beat. [/ QUOTE ] this is where you're wrong. of course they'll pay off turn bets and raises. they always do. they don't fold top pair. that's just not what they do. they don't fold gut shots. they don't fold bottom pair. that's why they're party idiots. they chase till the end. then when they've chased and missed, they'll "keep you honest." cheesy check raises and obvious slowplays work there because they almost always pay off. it is close, and I think this is a good spot to mix up your play. often I'll just call there and raise the turn regardless of what slides off (except maybe a K or Q). a lot of the time I'll raise. raising when your equity doubles is a nice plus, but of course soemtimes you get turned and raise drawing to 5 or 2 or no outs. I can't see this spot possibly mattering that much between raising the flop or the turn. waiting for the turn is probably FPS but as I wrote earlier, I really do think it's a good spot to mix up your play.
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#28
01-30-2005, 10:51 PM
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Re: looking for a bigger edge
i told you you wouldnt get any good responses here. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]
btw. I dont think it matters too much whether you raise the flop or the turn, but if you only plan on raising the turn when those cards you mentioned hit, then i would just raise the flop.
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#29
01-30-2005, 10:55 PM
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Re: looking for a bigger edge
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] but the turn card is going to increase hero's equity far more often than it will decrease hero's equity in a 3-way pot. [/ QUOTE ] I suspect that only 2,9 and A increase value of his hand assuming he doesn't know if they drawing to overcards or to straight or simply have pocket pair. All other cards decrease his valued, cards from T to K as well as 3 and 4 decrease his value a bit (3-5%) and 8 or 7 decrease his value greatly. [/ QUOTE ] a hand that's losing will need to add twice as many outs, or obviously take the lead in order to decrease his equity. that means a pair will have to add a flush draw or a gut shot (and even a pair and gut shot will have less equity). if you consider the overall range of hands, I don't think it's possible for his equity to decrease on the turn, no matter what slides off
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