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#21
08-24-2005, 11:51 AM
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Re: 72s
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] What's the plan if raised? [/ QUOTE ] Fold. [/ QUOTE ] If raised, there'd be 4.5 BB in the pot, and you have a OESD. You can prolly get another bet if you hit. Is the likelihood of a flush high enough to warrant this fold? [/ QUOTE ] typical 2/4 players would not think on the level of recognizing his bet as a bluff and countering with a bluff-raise, IMO. if he is raised his straight is likely drawing dead to a flush. 
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#22
08-24-2005, 12:05 PM
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Re: 72s
[ QUOTE ]
OP is not betting b/c he thinks he has the best hand here. [/ QUOTE ]lol
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#23
08-24-2005, 12:37 PM
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Re: 72s
[ QUOTE ]
Too good of a chance that LP will call with a big heart or SB with a little pair. [/ QUOTE ] I think that either I'm a total flake or many of you are overestimating the percentage of the time that unknown players will not bet with these types of holdings. I'm curious what you guys would estimate for these scenarios (assume Party 2/4): #1 - #/% of times a 3-way pot (2 blinds + LP poster) gets checked through on the flop. #2 - #/% of times that SB checks the turn with a small pair after the flop has checked through 3 ways. (I would imagine that both of these could be filtered pretty easy in PT)
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#24
08-24-2005, 12:42 PM
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Re: 72s
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If raised, there'd be 4.5 BB in the pot, and you have a OESD. You can prolly get another bet if you hit. Is the likelihood of a flush high enough to warrant this fold? [/ QUOTE ] typical 2/4 players would not think on the level of recognizing his bet as a bluff and countering with a bluff-raise, IMO. if he is raised his straight is likely drawing dead to a flush. [/ QUOTE ] Also note that I need 4.75-to-1 to be drawing to an OESD. I'm getting an immediate 4.5-to-1 and can make up .25BBs+ in implied odds on the river. However, I likely need quite a bit more than 4.75-to-1 due to discounting at least 1 out for the flush (probably 2, maybe more because I can't make the nut straight).
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#25
08-24-2005, 12:47 PM
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Re: 72s
bingo, which is why i don't think your cards matter that much here if they are non [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s. your opponents' tendencies matter. you do NOT want that bet called.
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#26
08-24-2005, 12:48 PM
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Re: 72s
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] What's the plan if raised? [/ QUOTE ] Fold. [/ QUOTE ] If raised, there'd be 4.5 BB in the pot, and you have a OESD. You can prolly get another bet if you hit. Is the likelihood of a flush high enough to warrant this fold? [/ QUOTE ] You can't really include the cards that make you a straight and put a 4-flush on the board, so that gives you only 6 outs (if you're not DDing already!)
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#28
08-24-2005, 12:53 PM
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Re: 72s
[ QUOTE ]
bingo, which is why i don't think your cards matter that much here if they are non [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s. your opponents' tendencies matter. you do NOT want that bet called. [/ QUOTE ] Exactly! But what are the tendecies of unknown players? What about when we only have the actions of the current hand to go on - and, as is the situation here, no one really seems to like their hand.
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#29
08-24-2005, 12:57 PM
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Re: 72s
[ QUOTE ]
BTW, what's your plan if you get called on the turn bet? I think you have to follow through and bet any river that is not a heart. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. If they're calling the turn they're just as likely to call the river with almost any 2-cards. The only way I'm betting the river is if I hit my straight. And this may be the best point as to why I need to check/fold the turn - I can't really legitimately follow up my turn bluff with a river bet.
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#30
08-24-2005, 01:04 PM
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Re: 72s
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] BTW, what's your plan if you get called on the turn bet? I think you have to follow through and bet any river that is not a heart. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. If they're calling the turn they're just as likely to call the river with almost any 2-cards. The only way I'm betting the river is if I hit my straight. And this may be the best point as to why I need to check/fold the turn - I can't really legitimately follow up my turn bluff with a river bet. [/ QUOTE ] I would think if your opponent called, there's a really good chance he has a FD, and he would fold to a blank river.
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