Winning percentage when seeing the flop

Wynton · #1 09-25-2003, 04:25 PM

While I think that I am seeing a proper percentages of flops for the low-limit games I play (between 10-20%), I have no idea what a respectable winning percentage might be for the flops I see. Does anyone have a very general sense of how many pots (percentage wise) a decent low-limit player should win, when he sees the flop?

Nottom · #2 09-25-2003, 04:33 PM

Really it varies depending on how many are seeing the flop with you. If 2 people are seeing the flop you'd like it to be above 50%, however if 10 are seeing the flop then you should be more than happy to win 20% of those. In most games, I'm generally having a decent session if its in the high 30s.

Rook1 · #3 09-26-2003, 04:07 PM

if your playing low limits online you should be seeing more than 20% of the flops . i have a stat tracker . have 15300 hands in it and i play 1-2 and 2-4 on party. win $ if flop seen is 26% (1233 times out of 4745)

Wynton · #4 09-26-2003, 04:49 PM

You really think 20% is too low? I thought that was about right. And while we're on the topic, do you have any thoughts about the percentage of hands you should win when you stay to the river? My guess is that, if I'm not winning 50% of those or more, I'm doing something wrong. What do you think?

NoChance · #5 09-26-2003, 11:24 PM

Just to back Rook, my win percent after seeing the flop is 28.59% (418 out of 1462). Most of that is at the 1/2 tables with a little 2/4 mixed in.

To answer your other question, when I check the summary tab, the average of all players I have played against for winning at the showdown is 46.15%. I am at 54.64%. I think if you win over 50% at the showdown you are fine.

Mike · #6 09-26-2003, 11:39 PM

I really wouldn't put to much value in seeing the flop percentage, see Nottom's post above. Also for example you go through 100 hours of better than average starting hands distribution, are you going to throw some away? On the other side, if you see worse than the average distribution are you going to play more hands?

If you aren't holding your own, or losing slowely, the percentage of flops seen is an indicator of what could be part of the problem, but it isn't set in stone, until many years from now, when you have years of experience behind you.

GuyOnTilt · #7 09-27-2003, 12:32 AM

Since I got pokertracker my win percentage when I see a flop is about 32%. To expect to win 50% of all hands that you play is expecting too much. I don't think a number that high could be maintainable long-term.

I would loosen up a bit PF though if you're seeing less than 20% of flops at the limits you're playing. 20% is a good number when you're playing in a decent game, but at limits where most pots are played multi-way, you can add more hands to your arsenal. I'd experiment with adding more suited connectors and one-gappers, as well as suited aces, to your starting hands in MP and LP when playing micro-limits if your table is loose/passive. This should bring you closer to a flop percentage of 25.

Al_Capone_Junior · #8 09-28-2003, 10:40 AM

Personally, I think this is a fairly useless stat. The stats available online are due to the computer, and its ability to keep track of and calculate such things effortlessly. I have never heard of anyone who played live keeping track of this.

al

Styles · #9 09-28-2003, 12:03 PM

According to TruePoker's stats ... I'm at 40% seeing the flop, 10% win percentage of all hands, 24% win percentage of flopped hands and 52% showdowns for my last 5000 hands

they're not exact as it doesn't quite add up, but, close enuff 480 vs 500

a couple contributing factors:

both blinds are $1 at the $1/$2 table and the games are pretty passive thus you almost never end up folding a blind so maintaining 30% seems like a reasonable goal.

also the tables seem to break down alot and while at a full table i'm usually between 27-35% I often play a session that gets shorthanded and lookdown and see 55% for that session.