Making the Pot Bigger vs. Keeping it Small?

[Max Weinberg]

I've been thinking about this one lately. Ok, you pick up some premium hand in the blinds and the table has limped to you, yadda yadda. You either raise and give everyone odds to call to make whatever crap they're holding, or you just check your option and make moves when you know that they're making mistakes when they call. Chicken or the egg stuff.

The question is, even if you raise and give them correct odds to draw, does that somehow offset your status as a 4:1 favorite (I'm just making it 4:1 for the sake of argument, I'm not going to use actual hands).

You made the pot large enough that they are correct to call all kinds of hands, but aren't you more correct to be raking in that money as a 4:1 favorite? Their being correct in calling a gut-shot on the flop doesn't detract from your EV on the hand does it? He's making a call that makes him money in the long-run, but it's also making you money - you're the favorite. Maybe I'm just misunderstanding this theory from HPFAP and someone can point out where I'm wrong.

If my goal was to systematically bust every player on the face of the earth, keeping the pot small to screw with their odds would be my weapon of choice. But in a pure cash sense, raise it up, right?

[William]

Right!!!

[CMangano]

The other thing to think about is the players you play against. If they are the type who calculate odds before deciding whether or not to chase, then keeping the pot small would have its benefits. But if they are going to chase you regardless of the pot size, then I see no reason not to build as big a pot as possible.

I am sure some will disagree.

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, you pick up some premium hand in the blinds and the table has limped to you, yadda yadda. You either raise and give everyone odds to call to make whatever crap they're holding, or you just check your option and make moves when you know that they're making mistakes when they call.

[/ QUOTE ]

You answer your own question there. When you raise preflop and they call they are making their mistake there, when you have big holdings that is. So by that mistake they have then added dead money into the pot and then get the chance to make +EV plays if the flop hits them.

So when you wanted to keep the pot small and know they are making a mistake on the flop, you always know they are making a mistake preflop.

Big unsuited cards you generally want to thin the field out though.

Take a deck of cards take the 2 cards out you want as your big hand then deal out a 10 handed game, take out the percentage of cards that usually fold preflop (you'll be doing this tighter than it actually is due to the blinds) then check out the EV on twodimes.net - if you want to make things interesting remove a few hands and see how the difference goes up/down for hands multiway vs short field.

[Max Weinberg]

I guess what I'm trying to ask is does their making +EV plays eat into your already +EV move of taking a big premium hand into a field of bad players.

If you're the 4:1 favorite and by your raise in the BB, some guy has +EV odds to call for a gut-shot, does that eat into your EV on the hand? You're still the favorite and making good money on your hand. Whether or not gut-shot boy has odds to profitably call doesn't really have any bearing on your EV, does it? He's correct in calling and you're correct in betting/raising.

Of course this whole question goes out the window if we're assuming players who are aware of pot odds, but I'm still curious to know about these implications. I'll deal out some hands later tonight and run them through twodimes to see if I can't figure it out.

[Dynasty]

How are you calculating what your odds of winning are? Often, this type of analysis assumes all hands are going to the showdown. If so, then your pre-flop raise doesn't change your favorite status.

[ACPlayer]

Raising in the blinds has other considerations that are perhaps more important. Specifically position and how the hand will play on the flop and beyond. Then factor in how the hand will play after the flop if you raise and pretty much have to bet into a large field, yada yada yada

[baggins]

if the guy limped then he's getting the same odds to call the raise from the BB. so if it's a mistake for him to limp based on pot odds, then calling the raise preflop is also a mistake. you're asking your opponents to either make mistakes preflop, or make them postflop. might as well get their chips in while you're a favorite then to let them see a cheap flop and then have correct odds to draw out on you.

[Max Weinberg]

The way this hand will play out is not possible by any standards, but I think it answers some of my questions and perhaps brings up some more theoretical ones. Here it goes, and feel free to chime in if I'm wrong in some spots as I haven't done much math in a while.

You pick up QQ in the BB after the entire table has limped in. What to do? What to do?

You Raise:

The flop is a 23T rainbow. You bet out and only get called in one place by a guy holding 56. You put the 21st bet into the pot and he calls getting 21:1. He doesn't hit on the turn and calls your bet again getting 12:1 on his call. The odds of completing a gut-shot by the river are 5:1, so five times your QQ wins when he folds on the river after getting no help. Five times you win 14BB for a total of 70BB. One time in five he spikes and you will lose 4.5BB (he gets a raise in there along the way, and you call him down). Net total of 65.5BB per six times you play this hand out.

The guy with 56 loses 2.5BB five times for -12.5BB. One time he hits and wins 17BB for a net profit of 4.5BB per six play-outs.

You Don't Raise

The flop is the same 23T rainbow, but this time you check to the bluff-aholic button who bets, and you check-raise him. He folds, but 56 calls-cold getting 6.5:1 on his call. He'll call the turn also if he doesn't hit. Five times your QQ wins 9.5BB for 47.5 BB net, and lose 4.5BB once for a total profit of 43BB per six hands. 56 will lose five times to the tune of 2.5BB for a total of -12.5BB. But he'll also win once and get an extra bet for a single 14.5BB. He makes only 2BB per six play-outs.

The Interesting Part

I couldn't contrive an example in a family pot where you don't raise and the gut-shot is not getting at least a little profit on any call he could make, so I had to make due with giving him less pretty odds than in the first hand.

When you raise in the first situation, the profit that 56 shows over an average six hands is 0.069% of yours.

When you check-raise in the second situation, the profit that 56 shows over an average six hands is 0.047% of yours.

Now the 0.022% isn't a monster of a percentage, but what I've inferred from this is that your edge is greater when you choose to manipulate the pot odds in your favor. You don't take down as big of a pot when your hand holds up, but you are making better money on the hand when you play it out the same way in similar circumstances. You get paid off slightly better in the long-run when you manipulate the pot odds to "widen the gap" between their EV and yours.

Is this what Sklansky is talking about and did I just re-invent the wheel on this one? I think I finally understand the concept behind this one now, and I'm open to any comments or criticisms regarding this post.

Thanks for reading the novel.

[Schneids]