Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability

Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 12-27-2005, 05:54 PM
NoSoup4U NoSoup4U is offline
Junior Member
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 2
Default Risk of Ruin and sportsbetting

I have taken to using my poker bankroll to make sports bets so that it is earning me some money while I play poker. I find this profitable for two reasons: 1) I get a bunch of deposit bonuses that are free money and 2) I can almost always locate bets where I bet on both sides and make anywhere from 1/2% to 4% no matter who wins. But there is a catch (isn't there always?). I started with 5k in three different books (to max out the bonus) and 5k in reserve. One book won every wager and the other two lost every wager. Now I have 15K in one book, 2K in one book and 5K in reserve (the extra money is a result of bonuses earned). Having all my money in one book would be a disaster, because my entire strategy is predicated on making opposing wagers at two different books. So, for all practical purposes, if I lose my remaining 7K into the book with 15K, I am ruined. I could always cashout and give up my bonus, but I don't want to do that.

So my question at the end of all that long-winded stuff is something like this:

If I place wagers that are exactly 50/50 between two books, one with 15k and one with 7k, how do I calculate the risk of one book winning all the bets as I vary bet size? Obviously, if I placed a single $7,000 vs $7,000 this would happen 50% of the time. If I bet $100 vs $100, I assume the risk would be very, very remote. I'd like to be able to calculate what bet size will give me a 5% risk of ending up with all my money in one book or a 10% risk of same.

There also exists the situation where I could bet $10 to win $100 against $100 to win $10 where I assume the true odds are 90/10. If I want to minimize the risk of one book winning all my money, should I prefer wagers with unbalanced likelihoods or ones where the risk is 50/50? Intuitively, I think it shouldn't matter, but I've learned that my intuition is mostly crap.
Reply With Quote

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:32 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.