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Old 12-19-2005, 08:54 PM
W. Deranged W. Deranged is offline
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Default The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4

So I was playing some 2/4 at Party today because I discovered they had given me some bonus money I didn't know I was eligible.

I played two hands that got me thinking about a very important poker concept, that of a protected pot .

In general, a protected pot is one in which the situation at hand makes it very unlikely that an opponent is bluffing. The most common reason a pot is said to be "protected" is because there are many opponents (basically any more than 2). Other reasons might be the presence of a very donky player who is not folding, the pot is large and so no one is folding, the board texture is such that your unlikely to get anyone to fold, and so on.


So I played two hands today which got me thinking about the protected pot effect. This not meant to be a prototype or example of when the protected pot effect obviously applies. In fact, this is more a borderline situation where I am interested in people's opinions about whether that effect should be considered and to what degree.

In the hand, the EP villain is unknown and the MP pre-flop raiser is generally unknown but seems pretty bad from what I can tell.

I am new to the table so there aren't image considerations.

Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Pre-flop: EP player limps, folded to an MP player who raises, one LP player colds calls, SB calls, Deranged calls.

Flop (5 players, 10 SB): K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB checks, Deranged checks, EP bets, MP calls, LP calls, SB folds, Deranged raises, EP calls, MP calls.

Turn (4 players, 9 BB): 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Deranged bets, EP calls, MP calls, LP folds.

River (3 players, 12 BB): 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Deranged bets, EP raises, MP calls, Deranged starts thinking about the protected pot effect and...


I encourage discussion about all aspects of the hand, including flop play, but the main question is the river. What range of hands can our opponents have? Can the river really have helped anyone? What effect does the MP player overcalling have on our decision?
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Old 12-19-2005, 08:57 PM
TheHip41 TheHip41 is offline
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Default Re: The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4

Protected pot or not, this is a super easy river call at 2/4

You will cry when donkey turns over K9 and the PFR has JJ
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Old 12-19-2005, 08:59 PM
W. Deranged W. Deranged is offline
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Default Re: The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4

How does your decision change if this is $3/$6? $5/$10? $10/$20?
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Old 12-19-2005, 09:12 PM
istewart istewart is offline
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Default Re: The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4

I would definitely call here against an unknown, but I'm not sure the protected pot effect has that much bearing in this situation. I would take the raise a lot more seriously if the river action went bet-call-raise, rather than bet-raise-cold-call.
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Old 12-19-2005, 09:13 PM
jason_t jason_t is offline
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Default Re: The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4

[ QUOTE ]
Protected pot or not, this is a super easy river call at 2/4

You will cry when donkey turns over K9 and the PFR has JJ

[/ QUOTE ]

No I wouldn't. I'd reanalyze the hand to see what, if any, went wrong.
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Old 12-19-2005, 09:42 PM
toss toss is offline
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Default Re: The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4

Its true MP coldcalling the river raise makes it less likely we're winning the pot, but at Party 2/4 I'll call expecting to win my fair share. At higher levels people tend to showdown less and fold when they're beat. They give up their hopeless holdings on the flop or turn. Here I'll fold. If I'm at a Party 2/4 table and notice that people are playing better than average I'll fold. If you felt the table was playing this way then I can agree with folding.
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Old 12-19-2005, 09:52 PM
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Default Re: The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4

The "bad" read you gave MP leads me think he's quite capable of hanging around with a weaker PP and gives me less reason to put stock in the "protected pot". Without that read, it's a different story.

I think YHIG more than often enough to make this call.

My gut says you're splitting this pot though.

Good post.
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Old 12-19-2005, 09:54 PM
private joker private joker is offline
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Default Re: The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4

[ QUOTE ]


My gut says you're splitting this pot though.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're putting one of the opponents on exactly KJ? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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Old 12-19-2005, 10:01 PM
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Default Re: The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


My gut says you're splitting this pot though.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're putting one of the opponents on exactly KJ? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be a requirement for splitting.
Damn my gut is a smartass [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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  #10  
Old 12-19-2005, 10:10 PM
rt1 rt1 is offline
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Default Re: The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4

17:1 and closing the action... you call. no doubt about it.
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