30-60 flop decision

Steve Giufre · #1 03-03-2005, 05:27 PM

Online game, I dont have the hand history so I have to write it out. Villian in this hand is the BB, his stats are VPIP-27, PFR-15, N-17, AGG-1.3. So he's a pretty reasonable player.

Two limpers and I limp in MP with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] SB calls, BB raises, all call.

Flop: 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Unknown in the SB leads out, BB raises, bad MP cold calls. Whats my play?

casinogosain · #2 03-03-2005, 05:39 PM

I don't see how this is other than a fold.

SB likely has an 8, or a T with a worse kicker. I suspect that the BB already has you beat with JJ/QQ. MP is not to be worried about.

Cold-calling seems awful here, and I think 3-betting will lead to a cap that you'll have to call and go to showdown after. Without any real backdoor draws I think this is a fold.

-Ash

(Edited to include my logic).

DcifrThs · #3 03-03-2005, 05:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Online game, I dont have the hand history so I have to write it out. Villian in this hand is the BB, his stats are VPIP-27, PFR-15, N-17, AGG-1.3. So he's a pretty reasonable player.

Two limpers and I limp in MP with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] SB calls, BB raises, all call.

Flop: 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Unknown in the SB leads out, BB raises, bad MP cold calls. Whats my play?

[/ QUOTE ]

sb could have a lot of hands, an 8, t etc...the raiser likely has a ten ini the bb so its almost certainly a worse kicker.

MP has TONS of hands including gutshots, random pairs etc...

3 bet and take it from there...you can't assume you're beat right now given the bet and raise came from the blinds and the bad player is the one who cold called...now if the blinds cap and lead out thats a different story on this dry board...

-Barron

Brom · #4 03-03-2005, 05:54 PM

Despite getting about 7:1 on your call here, I'd still be leaning towards a fold. The problem is that you don't know how many of your outs are clean.

I'd put at least one other person on a ten, and AT is a very likely hand. The preflop raiser probably has a big pocket pair or something like a suited broadway (more than likely containing a King). So if someone does have AT, then you are drawing to 3 outs, but if someone has a King tied up in their hand you are down to 2 outs. If the preflop raiser has KK then you are drawing to 3 outs, but if someone has a Ten tied up in their hand then you are again down to 2 outs.

The bottom line is that you have probably 3 outs tops, maybe 2, and even possibly 0 clean outs. You are facing a raise and your pots odds just aren't there for a 3 outter (you'd need more like 14:1). Throw in the fact that it may be raised more times after you call, and this decreases your pot odds even further. If there were a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the flop then taking one off may be correct, but since not I'd fold here.

Turning Stone Pro · #5 03-03-2005, 05:58 PM

Steve:

This is one tough decision, IMO. I think it is VERY close between mucking and 3-betting. Calling is not an option.

I think you have to muck it. If the BB is a decent, reasonable player, the only hands he can have that you can beat are AK, AQs, or 99. He's not going to raise preflop into several players from the BB with anything less, IMO. Even though he may very well have AK or AQ or 99, I dont think it's worth it to fire 3 cold in there when you can get out. His preflop and flop raise has to mean SOMETHING.

I hate limping preflop and I hate mucking K10s for 1 bet, which is why I have pretty much stopped playing full tables.
The only hands I enjoy limping with preflop in full games are small pairs.

I hope you 3-bet it and took it down, or mucked it and he showed QQ.

TSP

Steve Giufre · #6 03-03-2005, 06:17 PM

Good post you dirty lawyer.

Nate tha' Great · #7 03-03-2005, 07:55 PM

I'll just throw this out there, but I don't think that cold calling is all that terrible. In fact, it might be the best option. Your relative position is pretty good here, and cold calling allows you see the card that comes off on the turn and how everyone else reacts to it. 3-betting doesn't really protect your hand and gets you somewhat potstuck, and probably doesn't anything to purify the information that you're getting from your opponents. This pot's really huge.

Nate tha' Great · #8 03-03-2005, 08:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd put at least one other person on a ten, and AT is a very likely hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think AT is all that likely.

SB could have an extremely wide range of hands, including a wide variety of tens, eights, straight draws and so forth. I'd be fairly surprised if he has me beat right now.

AT is not all that likely a hand from the BB. In a 5-handed pot closing the action, I think the BB probably raises preflop with ATs here, but not very likely ATo, and there are only two combinations of ATs. In fact if he plays anything like I do (always a dangerous assumption), he's more likely to raise with JTs than he is with ATo.

bobbyi · #9 03-03-2005, 08:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
the raiser likely has a ten ini the bb so its almost certainly a worse kicker

[/ QUOTE ]
It's possible that he has a ten with a worse kicker, but I think you are really overstating how likely it is. I would expect a player who raises out of the big blind and then raises this flop to have an overpair (maybe JJ/QQ) more often that he'll have something like QT.

Steve Giufre · #10 03-03-2005, 08:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'll just throw this out there, but I don't think that cold calling is all that terrible. In fact, it might be the best option. Your relative position is pretty good here, and cold calling allows you see the card that comes off on the turn and how everyone else reacts to it. 3-betting doesn't really protect your hand and gets you somewhat potstuck, and probably doesn't anything to purify the information that you're getting from your opponents. This pot's really huge.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did cold call here. At first I thought it might have been a mistake, but its a little tough for me to see why three betting is a better option. I still think its really close to a fold, but IMO calling is probably better than raising. Im not going to fold the SB for two more bets here, and the BB is just going to punish me with a four bet when he is ahead. I also figured by calling I might give myself a chance to ditch it on the turn. If I three bet the flop, Im going to have to bet a lot of turn cards when its checked to me, and there is a decent chance I'll face a checkraise. If I just call, the action might go bet and raise to me, in which case I can safely muck. Like you said everybody is pretty pot stuck at this point so I dont really see the advantage of three betting.