Ever wonder why 2+2 is going downhill?

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]

JJ wins 45% of the time when both opponents hold TT, and AK (14 times). JJ wins 24% of the time when both hold a small pair or JJ (2.5 times). JJ wins 18% of the time when either opponent holds AA,KK, or QQ (15 times). If the pot becomes $1850 by the end, with JJ putting in $600 each hand, and this rough math assumes 31.5 hands, then it costs $18,900 to play, and returns $17,800. Clearly folding is a better option.

If, however, I can add 99 to a possible hand of the reraiser, then I can expect to win $1100.

So, I can either lose $1100 or win $1100. I don't see a difference between either capping or folding.


[/ QUOTE ]


right, because the game is played preflop. nothing happens postflop. plus, your numbers arent even right. plus if you think those are their ranges in middle position, youre out of your mind

MP1- AKs-A9s, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo, AA-77
MP2- AKs-AJs, AKo-AQo, AA-88

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.6577 % 25.47% 01.19% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KJo+ }
Hand 2: 34.9239 % 33.62% 01.30% { 88+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 3: 38.4184 % 37.68% 00.74% { JcJd }

[stoxtrader]

it looks like you are assigning the same range to the initial raiser and the re-raiser.

is that correct?

[UATrewqaz]

I didn't know you wanted actual discussion of the hand....

I will agree this is a definite cap or fold situation the answer being read dependent, if htey are maniacs/very laggy then its a cap, if sane players then fold.

Do your calculations involve what you will do if a lone ace or king falls? You figure you have to fold if one of them bets as AK now has you beat.

Are you thinking in terms of implied odds in the case both of them are holding AA/KK/QQ and you flop a J and get mucho bets in?

And then you have the VERY complicated situation if the flop comes

A/J/x

Then you may pay out the ass to AA (same story with a K/J/x flop).

[goofball]

if you think 2p2 is going down hill the way to fix it is to make coherent strategy posts as best and as often as you can. The way to make it worse is to make threads about 2p2 going downhill.

[dogmeat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

JJ wins 45% of the time when both opponents hold TT, and AK (14 times). JJ wins 24% of the time when both hold a small pair or JJ (2.5 times). JJ wins 18% of the time when either opponent holds AA,KK, or QQ (15 times). If the pot becomes $1850 by the end, with JJ putting in $600 each hand, and this rough math assumes 31.5 hands, then it costs $18,900 to play, and returns $17,800. Clearly folding is a better option.

If, however, I can add 99 to a possible hand of the reraiser, then I can expect to win $1100.

So, I can either lose $1100 or win $1100. I don't see a difference between either capping or folding.


[/ QUOTE ]


right, because the game is played preflop. nothing happens postflop. plus, your numbers arent even right. plus if you think those are their ranges in middle position, youre out of your mind

MP1- AKs-A9s, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo, AA-77
MP2- AKs-AJs, AKo-AQo, AA-88

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.6577 % 25.47% 01.19% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KJo+ }
Hand 2: 34.9239 % 33.62% 01.30% { 88+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 3: 38.4184 % 37.68% 00.74% { JcJd }

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you for your response Josh. I'm afraid that my feeble mind can only think as far as it did when I am in the middle of a hand. I guess now that you have explained it to me, I have my answer, which is all I was asking in the first place - to be enlighteened as to why my belief that a fold or cap would return the same in the long run was apparantly incorrect.

FWIW, your statement that I must be out of my mind was less helpful, except to reenforce my feelings about moderators here.

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[B Dids]

[ QUOTE ]
i hate it when i see good posters say stuff like "its too close to matter" or "i dont think either action will affect your winrate much". saying stuff like that just means that you dont know what the right play/frequency is or how to logically come to a conclusion.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or it means that given that there's always other mitigating factors, that there simply isn't a "right" answer.

[Evan]

Ha, I just found this thread. Glad to know that you think I'm the reason 2+2 is going downhill.

This post is not going to make me any more inclined to write long explanation about why capping and folding are very, very different. In fact, maybe a better solution is for you to just stop reading my posts, even ignore me.

I think people saying "capping ~ folding" degrades 2+2 a lot more than me saying "capping != folding".

[sweetjazz]

I think you would have a case if you had presented a detailed argument and received simple one-line responses. Given that you didn't bother to explain your thinking, I don't see how you can expect elaborate replies.

I have tried to make long posts where I put effort into them. Usually I get at least one good response and sometimes several good responses. I have, from time to time, received no serious replies. But that's life.

There's still a lot of good stuff on 2+2. There's also a lot of nonsense as well. Ultimately, it's up to you to decide whether there's enough of value here to make it worthwhile to sift through the junky stuff.

[Karmadog]

Don't worry about whether this forum is going downhill. I have seen it much worse on another poker forum, so much so I don't post at that site anymore. Nearly every post seemed to be filled with hate or degrading remarks devoid of any real value. This forum is nowhere near that point. Most likely people are just in a bad mood and need to cool off.

[kenberman]

maybe I misunderstood what the purpose of moderators is. I didn't think it was to be the guys who made the best posts - I thought it was people who would delete useless/wrong forum posts, and generally kept people on topic.

they are just volunteers, and you really shouldn't expect anything from them except keeping the forums 'clean'