bet/fold vs check/call on the river

[Lash]

"In addition, the more money in the pot before the river betting, the more dangerous this play is to being -EV"

That is a great point! ... Make my new list of considerations in my decision making process in these situations:

In order of importance - Order is up for debate
1- Pot Size
2- Board texture / previous action
3- Hand Strength
4- Opponent's Tendencies

[meanjean]

you're in MP dealt Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], you raise button calls, button is 70/5/0.5

3.5 SB
Flop is 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

You bet and are called

3.5 BB
Turn is 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

You bet and are called

5.5 BB
River is J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

You do what?

How does this change if the Button is LAG, TAG, or perhaps the pot was bigger.

Thanks for all the input above...

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
In order of importance - Order is up for debate
1- Pot Size
2- Board texture / previous action
3- Hand Strength
4- Opponent's Tendencies

[/ QUOTE ]

Opponenets tendencies are way to low on this list. If my opponent will never bluff raise then I will use bet/fold with any medium strength hand almost constantly.

[Judi]

This is good. 4. success rate v. return

[Judi]

1. Hand Strength.
Reason: It dictates what you would like to happen, i.e., if you have the nutz, you want your opponent to bet when you ck and call when you ck/raise. So.......

2. Opponent Tendencies:
Reason. Once we know what we would like our opponent to do based upon our holdings, we need to know what he/she is capable of.

3.Previous action:
Reason. We need to have a read on what our opponent may have to help determine how cooperative he may be in doing what we would like done.

4. Board Texture.

Reason: Knowing what our opponent is capable of, and, having a read on his/her possible holdings, we can compare same to what we are holding and make a determination as to the strength of our hand compared to the possible strength of our opponent and the possibility of our decision being successful

4. Pot size;

Reason: having assessed our chance of success, based upon the above, we compare to the return.

[Judi]

I believe this is player dependent. If he is going to call more often with a lesser hand than fold and will not bluff, and bet much less often with a lesser hand than check behind you, then you bet, because you cannot ck/fold.

In this case, you can only beat a smaller pocket pair, so why not ck and induce a bet, if your opponent is capable of same, and call? Otherwise, bet/fold to a raise if the opponent would not bluff.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
you're in MP dealt Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], you raise button calls, button is 70/5/0.5

3.5 SB
Flop is 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

You bet and are called

3.5 BB
Turn is 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

You bet and are called

5.5 BB
River is J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

You do what?

How does this change if the Button is LAG, TAG, or perhaps the pot was bigger.

Thanks for all the input above...

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a TAG check/calling.

Against a LAG bet/calling.

Against a LP who won't bluff raise here, bet/folding.

I don't bet/fold here too often.

[Lash]

Isn’t there 6.5 BB in the pot on the river? I’m assuming a 70/5/0.5 is a loose passive non-value seeking donator? Could you explain these three PT stats everyone refers to and their importance? I can’t find anything using the search engine.


VS. LOOSE PASSIVE OPPONENT

I bet because the pot is small enough that the times he raises I can fold safely.

He is not very capable of a river bluff unless by accident – Or you awoke the aggressive beast within him by giving him a reason to play tricky… show down bluffs / make him angry etc.

Not to mention - my bet is consistent with what looks natural. This type of opponent is likely thinking in terms of “flush got there, jack paired (if even that), maybe he has KQ, I CALL.” - Either / Or -

VS. LAG OR TAG W/ BIGGER POT

Check / Call – They likely would have shown aggression prior to the river with most hands worthy of a call in their eyes. Give them a chance to open up their game (bluff/thin value bet) and make a potential mistake.

-VS. Lag you could bet with the intention of calling a raise but that is outside the scope of this discussion-

VS. UNKNOWN
Interesting situation, comes up all the time on-line…

Check / Call – (see previous post in this thread for rationale)

What do you think the most difficult part of all of this? For me it’s making it part of my decision making process without taking a lot of time to mull over everything. I need a little more experience with this.

[imported_Jim C]

Since you asked for a clear-cut example, isn't the "Clarkmeister Theorem" a perfect instance of bet/fold on the river?

Jim

[meanjean]

[ QUOTE ]
Since you asked for a clear-cut example, isn't the "Clarkmeister Theorem" a perfect instance of bet/fold on the river?

Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know this theorum