Flop Decision: 65s

[detruncate]

Nate's post.

I agree with the turn donk bet vs an aggressive player. Else I c/r.

[GrunchCan]

If it weren't for NFinity's digest post, I would have missed this. I'm glad I saw it, becasue I think my play here is wrong. When reading the original post and seeing Hero bet out on the flop, I was thinking, "you don't have equity there, don't bet out."

Then I saw the other replies, and I went in to the tank for a bit.

The opponent is either PFRing with an overpair or 2 overcards in the vast majority of cases. If he's betting an overpair, we're drawing to about 9 outs, making us a 2:1 dog. If he's betting overcards, he's drawing to fewer outs (6), and he is a 3:1 dog.

What's more -- somebody can bear this out (I'm lazy & at work) -- I believe there are more combinations of overcards PFRing than pocket pairs. So in the long run, Hero does in fact seem to have an equity edge here. That makes betting out right.

Right?

[Nfinity]

[ QUOTE ]
What's more -- somebody can bear this out (I'm lazy & at work) -- I believe there are more combinations of overcards PFRing than pocket pairs. So in the long run, Hero does in fact seem to have an equity edge here. That makes betting out right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villian is Donkish, therefore more apt to pre-flop raise from UTG with a hand like KJo than TT. Should we still do the math Grunch? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I like what you came up with, and I'm glad you we got you to see a post that you otherwise wouldn't have seen.

[Jake (The Snake)]

This is a really good hand and is counter-intuitve at least for me.

I think you can 3-bet the flop pretty confidently.

Surprisingly, if villain's range is limited to 99+, AK, and AQ you actually have 57% equity heads up against him. Since (1) his range is very likely much larger than this and (2) we have a caller in between, I think you can 3-bet for value.

Edited to add: one more thing, if you are capped than the hand becomes fairly easy to play on the turn/river so you shouldn't be too worried about that.

[oreogod]

No way should u check this turn. Most of the time u are going to be against overcards. It happened that you were against somebody who actually thought betting this turn was good.

Against most players (especially aggressive ones)...bet the flop (call the raise, especially with Buttons CC), bet/3-bet this turn, lead the river.

3-betting this flop after Button's call is no good IMO.

Also, if u think UTG will open only with say: AA-JJ and Ak, AQ...then its 32-24 you are against a pocket pair. If his opening range is wider...then its even more likely u are ahead.

[MATT111]

Flop:
I think this hand is pretty read-dependend. What is the PF-raisers range of raising hands preflop? Is he raising kjo or even kto or a9o from utg? Does he commence aggressively with those hands? If yes i`d be more inclined to 3-bet the flop. Otherwise it`s rather a drawing situation.
Turn:
Bet. Dont give a free card.

[MN_Mime]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you can 3-bet the flop pretty confidently.

Surprisingly, if villain's range is limited to 99+, AK, and AQ you actually have 57% equity heads up against him. Since (1) his range is very likely much larger than this and (2) we have a caller in between, I think you can 3-bet for value.

Edited to add: one more thing, if you are capped than the hand becomes fairly easy to play on the turn/river so you shouldn't be too worried about that.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my initial reaction, too. I don't think you want to wait to push your edge in this hand. I 3-bet it and lead the turn regardless of what falls.

---

I don't agree with the PF call holding small suited connectors nor do I agree with dismissal of that discussion to an earnest questioning of it earlier.

A lot of people play this hand just so they can donk-bet raggedy flops. Maybe the odds are correct, but this kind of hand out of position misses most of the time or worse catches a lot of second-best and backdoor flops that trap you for additional bets against an aggressor who is going to make you pay for those draws. Maybe you play goot and avoid those pitfalls... I think this is the kind of hand that magnifies your variance and becomes playable in late positions when you can escape the misses cheaply.

EDIT: Do you folks who play this hand complete from the SB with it, too?

[Vote4Pedro]

I think its safe to say that ~98% of the people in these forums call/complete in this situation in a heartbeat

[MN_Mime]

[ QUOTE ]
I think its safe to say that ~98% of the people in these forums call/complete in this situation in a heartbeat

[/ QUOTE ]

Does that make it correct? If 98 people out of 100 do a foolish thing, isn't it still foolish? If you're inclined to support the PF flop call with facts, that would be great. Otherwise, we can fence with our penises.

I think the 3-bet on the flop is in order and it's not close. That view is not consistent with lack of a heartbeat [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[shadow29]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think its safe to say that ~98% of the people in these forums call/complete in this situation in a heartbeat

[/ QUOTE ]

Does that make it correct? If 98 people out of 100 do a foolish thing, isn't it still foolish? If you're inclined to support the PF flop call with facts, that would be great. Otherwise, we can fence with our penises.

I think the 3-bet on the flop is in order and it's not close. That view is not consistent with lack of a heartbeat [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

You're getting 5.5:1. The odds against flopping at least a flush draw (or flush) are like 6.5:1. The odds of flopping at least a straight draw are a little above that Dunno the odds of flopping two pair. But flush draw + straight draw + 2 pair + sometimes one pair that's good = call.

edit- and my e-penis is gargantuan.