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#41
07-17-2005, 12:31 AM
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Re: Flop Decision: 65s
[ QUOTE ]
I want to bet out the turn for two main reasons: A) I might have the best hand (value bet). B) I really want to get this pot heads up. There are reasons relating to B) that I'm not going to type up. [/ QUOTE ] I don't know if you are assuming a turn brick but I am as well. Yes, I think you should donk a blank turn if you c/r the flop. 
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#42
07-17-2005, 12:32 AM
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Re: Turn Action
[ QUOTE ]
This is read dependent, but if I think I can get villain to bet the turn AND the river with just an over pair, I check/call the turn and check/raise the river. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, but the problem is that there are two opponents.
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#43
07-17-2005, 12:32 AM
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Re: Flop Decision: 65s
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I want to bet out the turn for two main reasons: A) I might have the best hand (value bet). B) I really want to get this pot heads up. There are reasons relating to B) that I'm not going to type up. [/ QUOTE ] I don't know if you are assuming a turn brick but I am as well. Yes, I think you should donk a blank turn if you c/r the flop. [/ QUOTE ] Whoops!! That comment was supposed to say [ QUOTE ] want to bet out the flop for two main reasons: [/ QUOTE ]
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#44
07-17-2005, 12:33 AM
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Re: Flop Decision: 65s
Link?
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#45
07-17-2005, 12:35 AM
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Re: Flop Decision: 65s
[ QUOTE ]
I want to bet out the flop for two main reasons: A) I might have the best hand (value bet). B) I really want to get this pot heads up. There are reasons relating to B) that I'm not going to type up. edit- turn --> flop (in bold) [/ QUOTE ] Well, you don't need to bet for value because villain will always bet. But if you assume villain will raise with overs, then yes, this is a good bet.
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#47
07-17-2005, 09:34 AM
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Re: Flop Decision: 65s
[ QUOTE ]
Someone please respond to the reply I made earlier in this thread. This little confusion part has been bothering me for a long time. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Well, let's go through it. 1.5 outs for the backdoor flush draw. 4 outs for the fours in the deck, but I like to discount that by an out, on the chance that you'll have to split the pot with another six, so we'll say 3. Spiking one of the 2 remaining fives will probably be good enough. Spiking one of the 3 remaining sixes will sometimes be good enough, but you still have to worry about a four, so let's say 2 outs for the sixes. (I know, I'm not being very generous.) 1.5 + 3 + 2 + 2 = 8.5 With 8.5 outs, you're almost exactly 2:1 to make a winning hand by the river. The problem is that several of the hands you make are vulnerable to redraws, so I don't think you win 33% of the time here -- I think it's closer to 28% or 29%. As such, I don't think you have the equity to raise. Yes, I'm assuming you're behind, which is not necessarily the case, but with two other people in the hand, your pair of fives is relatively easy to draw out on, so I think it's a reasonable assumption that a good amount of the time, you'll need to improve to win. [/ QUOTE ] Did you mean that? He wasn't calculating the outs to the River to figure out whether or not we should continue. He was calculating our Equity. Equity is the bet amount equivalent to the percentage of the pot we expect to win. It's useful for a lot of things, but in this case he was trying to determine if we should value 3-bet the flop. If our chance to win by the River is greater than the percentage of money we are contributing to the pot then the more flop raises= more money we make. In this case our equity would have to be more than 33% I think I explained that right. Forgive me if I was a little off.
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#48
07-17-2005, 03:46 PM
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River/Results
I ended up C/Ring the turn. UTG folded, and our little donk tagged along. River was a brick (J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] maybe), I bet, donk calls and flips A7o and MHIG. Thanks to everyone who contributed to the discussion
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#49
07-17-2005, 04:29 PM
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Re: Flop Decision: 65s
Well I understand the pot equity concept except for one little part. If on the flop you have 9 outs and 3 other people are playing you should jam the pot because you will win it more than your fair of the time. However, this doesn't take into account that you will lose bets on the turn if you miss your 9 outs and call to see the river. I was just wondering if it should be calculated one street by one street so in my previous example with 3 other people and 9 outs on the flop you should just check/call because on the TURN you will make your 9 outs less than your fair share of the time. In other words you want to pay the min. on the flop with only 3 other people in.
Thanks.
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#50
07-17-2005, 05:28 PM
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Re: Flop Decision: 65s
[ QUOTE ]
However, this doesn't take into account that you will lose bets on the turn if you miss your 9 outs and call to see the river. [/ QUOTE ] Even if you miss your draw on the turn, you're still earning bets. [ QUOTE ] I was just wondering if it should be calculated one street by one street so in my previous example with 3 other people and 9 outs on the flop you should just check/call because on the TURN you will make your 9 outs less than your fair share of the time. In other words you want to pay the min. on the flop with only 3 other people in. Thanks. [/ QUOTE ] If you have an equity edge (ie having a flush draw on the flop against 5 opponents) then every bet and raise you make earns you bets.
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