TPMK type hands HU

[lightw1thoutheat]

thats where reads and pf play come into consideration big time

[cardcounter0]

What happens if a T comes on the turn or river?
And aren't these 3 outs the same 3 outs the Ax player has of getting his x?
And aren't there more x's below T than above T if neither T or x comes or if both x and T come?

So I would say AT is still a pretty good hand HU, even when you know the other player has an A.

[ QUOTE ]
What happens if a T comes on the turn or river?
And aren't these 3 outs the same 3 outs the Ax player has of getting his x?
And aren't there more x's below T than above T if neither T or x comes or if both x and T come?

So I would say AT is still a pretty good hand HU, even when you know the other player has an A.

[/ QUOTE ]

If a T comes on river you are probably good, of course. But I don't think this will happen enough to negate what was already stated.

If neither player improves after the flop, then you can assume that you are probably good b/c T is "better than average".

If you don't improve, however, you cannot be certain whether or not he improved. And if he didn't, was his kicker outranked by yours to begin with?

If your opponent TOLD you he held an ace, and the board came as such, then chances are you lose.

[cardcounter0]

This is almost like the "Monty Hall Problem", you are correct, it would be +EV to switch hands with your opponent, given that you didn't hit and you know that the other hand has an Ace also.

But most of the betting takes place before this situation occurs, when you still have the advantage. You can't not bet the flop or turn thinking this river situation might occur.

[ QUOTE ]
This is almost like the "Monty Hall Problem", you are correct, it would be +EV to switch hands with your opponent, given that you didn't hit and you know that the other hand has an Ace also.

But most of the betting takes place before this situation occurs, when you still have the advantage. You can't not bet the flop or turn thinking this river situation might occur.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct, I didn't mean to imply this whatsoever. It's just something that has taken me a while to really realize. You get to river and think "I still have TP with good kicker" but then you realize so many kickers (even lower ones now) have you beaten.

If this was a limit hand, should you then not bet this river HU? If you really believe they hold an ace than I assume so. Check/call should be the answer in position.

Plus, if you've been betting the flop and turn in position with an ace on board and villain has called, then he likely wouldn't bet any 2nd pair or lower on the river after you've checked.

Check/call the river everytime in this case?

[cardcounter0]

I think check/call is correct with unimproved ace, IF YOU KNOW YOU ARE UP AGAINST ANOTHER ACE. But how do you know this?

The answer is "it depends". Would the other player passively just call if his ace/kicker did hit instead of raising? Would the other player put you on two overs and call down with second pair? (and might bet the river if you check your ace?)

So it depends on what kind of hands the other player has shown and they have played them.

Absent reads, and being reasonably sure you are up against another ACE, check/call the river is the safe route.

[dfan]

From PokerStove:

Board: Ac 9d 6h
equity(%)win(%) tie(%)
Hand 1: 54.5% 48.32% 06.15% { ATo }
Hand 2: 45.5% 39.39% 06.15% { AA, A2s+, A2o+ }

So if your only assumption is that opponent has an A and ignore all information from opponent's betting actions, then you are a solid favorite to be ahead at the river.

But if the turn is a small card, you are no longer a favorite:
Board: Ac 9d 6h 3s
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1:49.9% 46.52% 03.38% {ATo}
Hand 2:50.1% 46.72% 03.38% {AA, A2s+, A2o+ }

And if the river is another small card that misses you, you are a big underdog:

Board: Ac 9d 6h 3s 8s
equity (%) win (%)tie (%)
Hand 1:40.3% 36.80% 03.45% { ATo }
Hand 2:59.7% 56.29% 03.45% { AA, A2s+, A2o+ }

I tried several different small cards for the turn and river and the results were almost identical. So I guess- No you should not bet the river if you know your opponent started with Ax and nothing in his betting suggests that he missed.

Interesting.