Big semi-bluff vs. known overpair

[cero_z]

Hi everyone,

MadGenius1 and iceman have made some interesting posts regarding a hand MG played. It reminded me of a hand I played at Foxwoods (5-5 NL), where I attempted to bluff a guy who I felt quite sure had an overpair.

I was in the SB with Qs5s. The Villain in this hand was in EP, and had limped in, along with 4 others. We took the flop 6 ways, with $30 in the pot.

The flop came a beautiful 7s 6h 3s, giving me a flush draw and a gut-shot. I checked, the BB checked, and Villain bet 45 bucks. I should note that when he did this, I was 90% positive he had AA or KK. Huh?

We have a little history. I'd played with him for a couple of hours, and knew him well already. He was a very tight, very cautious player, and he was nursing a pretty decent win at this point, having built his stack from 500 to about 2000 (I had him covered). He hadn't played a hand in about 45 minutes, despite the fact that the table was seeing $5 flops 4-8 handed all night long. At the beginning of our session, he and I had been at the must-move table, where I'd been concentrating on loosening him up: bluff him and show him; bluff him and show him. It wasn't working. Then, when we got to the main game, I'd forgotten all about him, and had gone to work on the much weaker opposition to be found there. Still, in the back of my mind, I was waiting to sock him with a big hand, when he was ready to take a stand against me.

OK--back to the hand. I knew it was AA or KK, because of his EP call, and the slightly beligerent look on his face when he bet. He was trying to say, "I have top pair, or something; if you can beat that, you ought to raise me." I'd seen him limp with big pairs twice so far, and I'd seen that look once before, where it worked perfectly, getting some schmoe to raise him and then pay him off with AT on a ten-high board. So he bet 45, a very loose chaser called, and I called. 3 of us to the turn, pot was 200-ish.

The turn card was an offsuit 8, making the board 7s 6h 3s 8x. I checked, he bet 150, and the chaser folded. I raised it 500 more. This put him in agony. He debated and debated, and looked at me a little angrily. Finally, with a hint of indignance on his face, he called. We went to the river heads up, with about 1500 in the pot.

The river was an offsuit Jack, and I put him all in for just over 1000. He again thought for a while, and folded. I didn't show that one.

The most interesting thing to me about this hand (and my toughest decision by far) is my decision to follow through on the river. I felt strongly he had KK, and had been setting him up all night to get a big call out of him, and he'd just called 500, at what seemed to be the commitment point of the hand. But, with this player, I felt it didn't matter; he just wasn't going to put his whole stack in with one pair.

Comments?