#11
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Re: live hand--how good of a read do I need to fold this?
Sorry, I'm a soup sandwich (posting quickly from work).
On the turn w/ one card to come you're 19.6% to make your nut flush by the river. So jamming the turn probably isn't +EV since you're putting in (at best, if sb calls two cold) 20% of the turn bets. So there doesn't seem to be a pot equity edge on turn. Even with only 5 clubs left in the deck (as would be the case if all 4 of your opponents were on a flush draw, which seems unlikely), you're 8.2 to 1 to make the flush on the river. Getting 15 to 1 it's still an easy call. Raise/calling the river seems right for reasons Miles Dyson said. |
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