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Old 11-12-2005, 03:11 AM
BarkingMad BarkingMad is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Seattle
Posts: 33
Default Re: live hand--how good of a read do I need to fold this?

Sorry, I'm a soup sandwich (posting quickly from work).

On the turn w/ one card to come you're 19.6% to make your nut flush by the river. So jamming the turn probably isn't +EV since you're putting in (at best, if sb calls two cold) 20% of the turn bets. So there doesn't seem to be a pot equity edge on turn.

Even with only 5 clubs left in the deck (as would be the case if all 4 of your opponents were on a flush draw, which seems unlikely), you're 8.2 to 1 to make the flush on the river. Getting 15 to 1 it's still an easy call.

Raise/calling the river seems right for reasons Miles Dyson said.
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