4 straight on board, so what?

Lestat · #1 04-08-2005, 10:47 PM

1st limper is pretty tight at 11% vpip. PF% is 7, and AF is 2%. 1 other limper and I raised with AA. Just the 3 of us.

Flop came AT3r. 1st player bets, next folds, I raise, he calls.

Turn is a J. He checks, I bet, he raises, I re-raise, he calls.

River is a Q. He bets, I raise.

Agree or disagree?

beerbandit · #2 04-09-2005, 11:22 AM

disagree

i dont think that he will call with a worse hand, yet most likely wil be raised by the straight

Lestat · #3 04-09-2005, 12:33 PM

But aren't there hands he might bet that don't include a king?

Also, couldn't I safely fold to a re-raise?

LAGmaniac · #4 04-09-2005, 01:11 PM

It's pretty of hard to put him on a hand because he played it rather unconventionally, which is suprising from a player with those stats. The only way you can put him on a King is with AKs but I also think AQs and and 33 are possible. The main thing I don't like about your river raise is that a tight player may not pay off with a worse hand enough to make the raise +EV.

LAGmaniac · #5 04-09-2005, 01:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
But aren't there hands he might bet that don't include a king?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes but from this player they are hands that will bet and fold to a raise (usually).

[ QUOTE ]

Also, couldn't I safely fold to a re-raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but why spend two bets when you are behind instead of one? With call stations that can't read the board your raise has value but this isn't the guy.

Lestat · #6 04-09-2005, 01:57 PM

Thanks for your thoughts guys. I just didn't think the 4 card straight was too relevant here. I thought he might be betting two pair for value (not wanting to miss a bet), and counting on the fact that I wouldn't raise without a king. So I did raise knowing that he really couldn't re-raise without a king.

It turns out he had AJ and did pay off. It's possible I'm being results orientated, so I appreciate the input. Thanks again.

LAGmaniac · #7 04-09-2005, 03:06 PM

Yeah I figured he paid off here with a worse hand given your tone in the post which got me to thinking that I may have given him too much credit for making a big laydown on the river.

While it is true that a player with those stats will bet, raise and fold more often than they will call, I may be overestimating the value of his PT stats here. The post flop aggression factor is an average of his actions on all streets post flop so it doesn't necessarily mean he is capable of folding two pair on the river to a possible unknown heads up when a scare card falls. I also neglected the fact that a player with those stats is likely to be multi-tabling and he may not have had time to replay your actions on all the streets in his head when the decision was to him.

Against a player like this who gives up some EV on each table in order to not make costly folding mistakes on the river, your raise has some more value. What do you think?

DpR · #8 04-09-2005, 03:14 PM

Just caught up with this thread, wish you had waited a little longer for results. I think you made a very good play and gained a bet in a situation where a lot of players allow the scary board to prevent them from thinking about what their opponent has - aprticularly in this case where he is very tight and his hands can be limited to a pretty narrow range. I suppose ther eis some narrow chance he has somethihngn like 88 and and just threw a bet at it and forgot to fold to your raise, but the turn eliminates those possibilites.

His play screams AJo from the very beginning. Once he leads the flop AJo or A10s would be the first thoughts since I think he would have raised any otehr A's he would play or anything that made a set. KQo is a stretch as even if he would bet that an 11% vpi is not playing KQo UTG (and figure he raises KQs) UTG.

The check raise on the turn w/o a cap reinforces the same two hands. What else can he have there, and is there anyway a K is part of his hand? AK clearly is raised preflop.

River then plays itself if there is no way to have a K. I think this is a clear case where you can put a very tight opponent on a specif hand or two. You used that information to gain a big bet. Good job. Also, on party 15/30 if that is where this was, I have not run into many opponents that fold the two pair here as everyone is afraid of being bluffed off on the river.

morello · #9 04-09-2005, 03:28 PM

Agree, if you are comfortable in folding to a 3bet. If he's not 3betting anything other than the straight here, I like the raise.

Lestat · #10 04-09-2005, 04:56 PM

I'm STILL trying to fine tune my play off other people's stats. There are many players with otherwise very solid numbers who nevertheless continue to shock me with some pretty horrendous plays.

And you're very right that multi-tabling is a likely culprit (at least it is when I gaff). To the point where I'm going to start looking up who is doing so. Thanks again.