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  #21  
Old 12-15-2005, 08:24 AM
TheJackal TheJackal is offline
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Default Re: Two hands (Stars 45k)

Hand 1: I probably would have checked the flop or bet less, a c/r would make me puke here. Looks like a fold to me after the raise.

Hand 2: Looks like you are getting 2:1, and I believe you win this hand somewhere in the neighboorhood of 30%-40% of the time, I think you can call here profitably. Good spot to get a big stack, and I don't know about you but I play much better from the lead.
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  #22  
Old 12-15-2005, 09:14 AM
tedtodd tedtodd is offline
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Default Re: Two hands (Stars 45k)

Hand 1: I like the bet on the flop- but his reraise would probably make me fold. I put him on pocket pair- and he knows you were either on a blind-steal or your overcards missed the flop. You're 7 or 8 might hold up against his lower pocket pair- but i'd lay it down. Hopefully you can trap him into thinking you're stealing blinds again later, and come back over the top of him.

Hand 2: I like this hand more. I'd easily call the button with ~30k but i'm folding to the MP1 with ~50k. I like it headsup, but not 3 ways. MP1 checked the flop, maybe trying to get a free card on a junk flop- but when he re-raised, i think he has definetly on a flush draw. I'd look for some better spots.
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  #23  
Old 12-15-2005, 09:30 AM
Rickyroodido Rickyroodido is offline
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Default Re: Two hands (Stars 45k)


I would fold hand 2. At best you have 8 outs, I think.
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  #24  
Old 12-15-2005, 10:16 AM
PrayingMantis PrayingMantis is offline
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Default Re: Two hands (Stars 45k)

[ QUOTE ]
7's and 8's - i think they're good 50% or more. so 3 outs.


[/ QUOTE ]

I would think that your pair outs are good significantly less than 50%, against an arbitrary unknown player with such action and board.
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  #25  
Old 12-15-2005, 11:44 AM
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Default Re: Two hands (Stars 45k)

Without reads, I'm letting the 2nd hand go. Button's all-in could very well be a push with higher diamonds, which cuts out 9 of your outs. I'm not sure what MP1 is doing here, except that maybe he has a set and knows that one of these players are aggro and will bet ou on this board. I think his raise is pretty much saying "anyone else on a draw, get the [censored] out now." Fold.

The first hand is a trickier. If BB knows you are aggro and is capable of playing back, well, that could mean he is testing the waters with his small pair. If he doesn't know or you just have no read, I make the assumption that a 9 or five lies comfortably as one of his hole cards. Assuming no reads by either party, this is a fold or go over the top situation. The question is - when? Well, you could just call here and then bet out the pot on the turn and then bet 1/2 the pot again, making your play look kind of trappy. The problem is that face cards could be disasterous with no read. So, I'd say push, put him to the test.

Argun
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  #26  
Old 12-15-2005, 11:47 AM
johnnybeef johnnybeef is offline
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Default Re: Two hands (Stars 45k)

hand 1 you are too short to call the checkraise. also, i check behind here on the flop, as there are a ton of semi bluff cards that could come off on the turn (and 4 cards that give you the nutz).

hand 2 i fold. you are up against Axd too often here given the betting.
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  #27  
Old 12-15-2005, 12:17 PM
zoobird zoobird is offline
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Default Re: Two hands (Stars 45k)

Without reads I fold hand 1. If I had a read that led me to believe he'd put me on a steal and c-bet, then I push. My rule of thumb is I've got to expect the re-raise BEFORE he does it to push.

Given the pot odds and the number of potential outs, I call hand 2. While you could be up against a better flush draw, you could also be up against 2 pairs, sets, straight draws.
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  #28  
Old 12-15-2005, 12:33 PM
woodguy woodguy is offline
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Default Re: Two hands (Stars 45k)

Hand 1 - This is the type of flop that medium pairs love to put you on AK and try you on. If I'd seen the BB call and fold a lot I put in a 1/2 pot bet to rep the big pair, if he plays back and is strong I check and turn my gutshot. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

If he leads the turn I may call depending on the turn card and the price, if an A or K turn I probably raise his lead, if he leads weak I may raise too.

Hand 2 - Boy that looks nice.

You have 27% pot equity if you are against a set and the nut flush draw/TP

You have 30% equity if vs. twopair and nut flush draw/TP

You have 47% equity if you are against 2 sets.

You are calling 24.8K into a what will be a 98.6K main pot (with your chips) making your equity 24% of that pot.

So you have the right equity to get involved in the main pot.

Assuming MP1 will get all in with you the side pot will be 60K with you putting up 50% of the chips.

If you are up against A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] X[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] you have 31% equity
If you are up against a set you have 42% equity.

I don't think two pair puts in the 3rd raise on this flop so I won't include that.

So,

You have the right price for the main pot, but the wrong one for the significant side pot.

I'm at work so I don't have time to do all the math, but air math shows its probably a slightly -EV move.

Wicked freaking stack if you call and win both pots though.

Folding leaves you with 100BB's, that's a nice stack still.

Calling and losing both leaves you with 32BB's...not the end of the world.

Calling and winning both gives you 197BB's, very nice.

I think that this really depends on how you feel about playing with these various stacks vs. these opponents.

I probably fold if I'm know I'm better than most, and call if I'm outclassed.

Regards,
Woodguy
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  #29  
Old 12-15-2005, 12:35 PM
PFrese PFrese is offline
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Default Re: Two hands (Stars 45k)

FOld hand 1

call hand 2 - you have ~15 outs and based on the action, you are not up againts the nut flush draw. Maybe AKd is out there but I think you are up against set over set. You are still ok if you loose and you are a monster if you win.
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  #30  
Old 12-15-2005, 12:36 PM
woodguy woodguy is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Edmonton, Alberta
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Default Re: Two hands (Stars 45k)

[ QUOTE ]
you are not up againts the nut flush draw

[/ QUOTE ]

How did you come to that conclusion?

Regards,
Woodguy
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