Passive AQo in the BB

[kurosh]

5/10 6-handed.

67/33/1.3 over 200 hands opens UTG.
28/24/3 over 50 hands 3-bets in the SB.
I call in the BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls.

Flop comes: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB bets. I call. UTG calls.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
BB bets. I call. UTG folds.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB bets. I raise.

[TStoneMBD]

interesting hand.

i agree with the preflop call.

i agree with the flop call.

the turn gets tricky. i think if you raise the UTG player will certainly call 2 if he has the other ace regardless of kicker. raising will probably also force the SB to fold a pp which is something you dont want happening because i think its safe to assume you can extract another bet on the river.

therefore i like the turn call. you might as well keep the UTG player in the hand with his PP and you dont want the sb folding his. it would suck though if UTG had a smaller ace and you miss value because of calling.

river comes and the opponent value bets his hand into you. hrm. i think hes going to be playing any 99+ hand against you this way because the bet/fold line is good poker, but that means he should be bet/folding a river raise when he has a pp. only problem with that is you havent really played your hand as a strong ace so unless you have A7 there is a reasonable chance your raise is a bluffraise. if he views you as a tag however there really arent many hands you could have at this point that a PP is ahead of, if any at all so a fold is in order. i think alot of tags are going to pay off the river raise with alot of pocket pairs in this spot however.

AJ is probably as likely as AK for the SB. he could easily have AT as well. it would suck to raise the river and get 3bet but i dont think AK will be 3betting there unless he has a read on you as a good tag then i think the 3bet is very solid.

at the same time i dont know how to handle a 3bet. you have a small sample size on him and he appears extemely aggressive so id imagine he will have a hand you beat often enough to make calling correct. its also suspect for him to have a hand worth 3betting you on this river with unless he has 88 or 77, so i think calling is a must.

[Lmn55d]

99-KK, AT-AJ = 46 combos.
AA, AK = 9 combos

46:9 is about 5:1 and he's probably not 3betting AK. So it's basically a 1:1 proposition. He's gonna fold 99-KK a lot, but not all the time. Seem like an easy raise if his range is similar to what I said. Well played.

EDIT: oh and I agree with flop/turn for reasons TSTONE stated.

[TStoneMBD]

i think you gotta add 77 and 88 to your combo range.

[Lmn55d]

ok. I also would 3bet that player with A9s a lot.

[Lmn55d]

wait, how often is 77 betting the turn here? I'll grant you 88 though.

[Lmn55d]

Adding 88 and doing some more math:

Let's say he folds 99-KK 75% of the time. Is this realistic? I think this may be a little high but we'll use it.

We'll also say he doesn't 3bet AK because I dont think he will very often unless he's v. aggressive.

You win 1 bet from 99-KK 75% of the time, lose 1 to AK 100% of the time, gain one from AT-AJ 100% of the time. Lose 2 to 88 100% of time.

gain (27)(.25) + (16) : lose (8) + (3)(2) = 22.75:14 or 1.6:1. Still easy raise right? And I don't think your average tag folds TT-KK 75% of the time. A lot of them play bad and are just like "shizzle the pot is big, I call"

[Danenania]

Anyone for a PF cap?

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone for a PF cap?

[/ QUOTE ]

I cap pre flop, but I like the rest of the hand.

[Lmn55d]

I also cap preflop for value.