ed miller wiating until the turn raise

[Dylan Wade]

Ice,

You make money in poker by your opponents acting unprofitably. What the guy with a QA on the Q74r flop doesn't know is you have KK.

Imagine this, turn everyone's cards face up. Now if any pair or draw can call your bet profitably then you should wait till the turn, but that's not the case in a 10sb pot.

Although QA is a great hand and QA hit his flop hard, he is still losing money calling (or raising) KK's bet in this scenario. Of course the QA is correct in practice raising here since theres a wide range of cards Mr KK could have, but if KK exposed his cards, QA would definitely be making a mistake raising.

Of course you could be up against 44 so you'd feel pretty stupid waiting for the turn only to get 3bet by 44. =)

In big pots things are different because in a big pot people are making less of a mistake calling, and some players are even correct to call. Since you're not sure if you're ahead or behind, and you're facing many opponents, you change your plan to maximizing your chance of winning the pot. the way you do that is punish weak draws that are drawing thin... pairs (on the board), like QA on the previous board, often have enough hidden outs to profitable draw in a large pot. (HOwever, I think betting straight out is correct again on the turn for this scenario)

[CallMeIshmael]

AQ is 8.4-1 to improve by the turn, and thus can call the bet profitably.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
AQ is 8.4-1 to improve by the turn, and thus can call the bet profitably.

[/ QUOTE ]

You profit more by him calling, however.

Assum it's HU, if he's gonna improve 1/9 times, you own 8/9ths of every bet that goes into that pot. On the other hand, he only gets 1/9 of each bet.

So even though he's calling profitably, it's much more profitable for you.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
You profit more by him calling, however.

[/ QUOTE ]

Incorrect.

You are losing money on his calls. By the FTOP, he is playing his hand correctly, and thus you are losing (in the HU situation).

The 8/9 of a SB that you gain when he calls is less than the 11/9 SB of the pot (11 sbs in the pot * 1/9 (his chance)) you LOSE by him calling. This is a common error in logic.

[Kaz The Original]

Incorrect.

You are making less money on his calls than you would be on his folds. You are STILL making money on his calls.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
You are STILL making money on his calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct. I forgot to mention this. Betting is better than checking. But when he calls your bet, it is worse than when he folds or raises.

[Dylan Wade]

I don't know the it's more complicated answering "is it profitable for AQ to call?" I actually avoided taht question. I simply said it's unprofitable for him to raise. That is clear.

Actually, now that I think of it more, the AQ scenario is clear, because KK would be hard pressed to call vs a turn raise if either a Q or an A fell on the turn, as they are both scare cards... in a small pot, HU, he might fold to a raise on those turn cards...

[Alexthegreat]

I'll take KK against AQ with a Q high flop every time......You can have AQ and we'll play the hand 1000 times per day....

I can bet, you can call, I can bet the turn and river blanks, and you can call them....You can catch a Q or A every 8 hands or so, and you'll take some pots down....

But eventually, all your BBs will be mine....

[Dylan Wade]

definitely. I just said "it's clear" that AQ should call. This is because of circumstances, this is a 1 card draw. If AQ misses the turn, he should fold the turn bet, if AQ hits the turn, KK has an easy fold to raise. It's only unclear in situations where there are mutliple things that can happen on 2 cards that complicate the decision if cards are up HU.

AQ is the dog here everytime, but between folding the flop calling,and raising, (knowing the cards) calling is the correct choice. That is all we are talking about. nobody said AQ is in any way a favorite.

[Ice]

Dylanwade

But the guy with AQ is NOT making a mistake CALLING. He's getting 11-1 from the pot and he is an 8.4-1 dog to take off one card on the flop.Thus he is getting the right price to proceed whether you bet or not.If you don't bet he is getting infinite odds which is even worse but if you check and he bets into you on the turn you can now raise and Maybe improve your expectation of winning the pot.I believe that is the concept that Mason was trying to get across,however, situations come up where checking the flop can create everyone checking to you again and everyone folds and you lose all the flop bets which is a lot of money.I guess these plays are situational dependent and you just have to make the best guesstimate at the time. Ice