all-in - draw?

wslee00 · #1 12-12-2005, 01:04 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP1 ($67.06)
MP2 ($204.71)
Hero ($103.05)
Button ($94.15)
SB ($228.45)
BB ($17.50)
UTG ($84.72)
UTG+1 ($116.10)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
2 folds, MP1 calls $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, Button raises to $4, SB (poster) calls $3.50, 1 fold, MP1 calls $3, Hero calls $3.

Flop: ($17) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)

converter seems to be broken...
sb checks, mp1 bets $3, hero raises to 16, button folds, sb raises all-in, mp1 folds, hero???

#2 12-12-2005, 01:09 AM

call.

As you say, he's probably on a draw. Here is where having a good read on your opponent is vital. Has he been playing super aggressive? I think you have him beat. Either he has AJ or (more likely I would think) he is drawing to the nut flush. Either way, you have to call.

Godfather80 · #3 12-12-2005, 01:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
call.

As you say, he's probably on a draw. Here is where having a good read on your opponent is vital. Has he been playing super aggressive? I think you have him beat. Either he has AJ or (more likely I would think) he is drawing to the nut flush. Either way, you have to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure how you can eliminate a set from villain's possible holdings.
Let's examine the hand from Villain's perspective. He had a hand strong enough to play OOP and to just call a button raise to 4xBB. To me, this points to either a pocket pair from JJ-22 or a suited connector. On the flop,
Villain check-reraised all-in. This eliminates all suited connectors except JJ, TT, 99, and 88. It also eliminates all suited connectors except K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and 98s.

Unless villain is very, very aggressive, his range is: a set, OESD, straight flush draw, or pair plus straight or flush draw.

You are about 15% on average to win against a flush (12% vs JJ, 15% vs 99, 18% vs 88)

You are 65% to win against the TT OESD.

You are 57% to win against the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] flush draw.

You are 47% to win against Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] pair plus draw.

You are 40% to win against J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] pair plus draw.

You are 90% to win against 98s.

There is $135 in the pot and it costs you $83 to call, so you need to win 38% of the time to make this a +EV call.

Taking a rough average of all of the possible win %, Hero is about 43% to win against villain's range.

Overall:
This seems to be a +EV call, but we really need reads because Villain isn't really as likely to push with just a straight draw as he is to push with bottom set.

EMcWilliams · #4 12-12-2005, 02:09 AM

Button raised PF, I think most likely you will see AKc, AA-TT, KQc,. So all against the JJ you are pretty good against so I think I call here.

Godfather80 · #5 12-12-2005, 02:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Button raised PF, I think most likely you will see AKc, AA-TT, KQc,. So all against the JJ you are pretty good against so I think I call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, you don't think that AKs reraises preflop? I think most often it does, but okay.

You don't think AA and KK reraise preflop? Gimme a break.

You don't think QQ will reraise preflop? I think most often it does, but okay.

I agree that JJ and TT don't reraise preflop. The former has us crushed, the latter we are ahead of 2:1.

Try to see it from Villain's perspective. You are in the SB and you've seen a button raise to 4xBB with 2 limpers into the button.

scrapperdog · #6 12-12-2005, 02:25 AM

I think this is such an easy fold. A check-raise all in to a raise and a re-raise from the person that did not even raise it up pre flop. If that is not strength I dont know what is. I feel you are beat here most of the time. This is a 4 way flop, not something heads up against the button (If that was the case I call instantly). I would be interested knowing more about why people think this is a good call. I would say this is a bad call withought a read.

Godfather80 · #7 12-12-2005, 02:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is such an easy fold. A check-raise all in to a raise and a re-raise from the person that did not even raise it up pre flop. If that is not strength I dont know what is. I feel you are beat here most of the time. I would be interested knowing more about why people think this is a good call. I would say this is a bad call withought a read.

[/ QUOTE ]

Scrapper, you are beat here most of the time. That isn't the point. Thhe question is: are you good 38% of the time?

sawseech · #8 12-12-2005, 02:31 AM

hero types some 2pac in the chatbox and calls

Godfather80 · #9 12-12-2005, 02:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
hero types some 2pac in the chatbox and calls

[/ QUOTE ]

o rly?

jsnipes28 · #10 12-12-2005, 02:35 AM

Based strictly on the action i think that villain has something like 99, 88, QT, AcJc, AcTc. I think we (collective as 2+2ers) place two large a percentage on semibluffs against unknowns. People love to c/r big hands, particularly on the flop against a pfr. I think you will see QT, or 88 here more often than not. Granted we have outs against these hands, but it just feels like throwing money away. There is nothing wrong with folding here, i hate doing it but i feel it is the right move to make. QT seems like a questionable preflop call but people tend to overvalue their hands from the blinds, particularly since they are getting a "discount"