99 on underboard meets aggression at all stages

#1 09-25-2005, 02:36 PM

CO is fairly tight, regular aggression. I don't think he'd be raising preflop with either a 6 or 8 in his hand (or pairs of those).
2 questions:
Do I go submissive on the flop after being reraised preflop?
What about the turn?
Could/should you fold the river? Pot is pretty big.

Party Poker 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (9 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO 3-bets, 1 folds, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (18.00 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, CO raises, SB folds, BB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (13.00 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, CO raises, BB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (21.00 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO bets, BB folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds.

Final Pot: 23.00 BB.

Guruman · #2 09-25-2005, 03:49 PM

nice table.

Hojglad · #3 09-26-2005, 01:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Do I go submissive on the flop after being reraised preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]
Even though this flop isn't the perfect one for 99, it is pretty sweet. In general, I think I'm check-raising this flop. At this level, the guy who three bet you is not playing you. He's playing his cards. If he three bets my check-raise on the flop, 90-95% of the time, he will have an overpair. If this is the case, I call his three bet, and fold the turn unimproved (provided that there aren't 22 or so big bets in the pot after the action on the turn is closed).

[ QUOTE ]
What about the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]
I hate your bet. What does it accomplish? You picked up a gutshot. I would gladly check-call here - it's quite clear the cutoff is in love with his hand and you don't want to charge yourself to draw.

[ QUOTE ]
Could/should you fold the river? Pot is pretty big.

[/ QUOTE ]
This, in my opinion is why you check-raise the flop. If he three bets your check-raise, I can fold this river with confidence because, at this level, a flop three bet to a checkraise almost always means "overpair". The cutoff has done absolutely nothing but show aggression whenever he had to make a decision. I am fairly certain your hand is no good here. That said... I don't know if I'm > 95% sure your hand is no good here. However, given that the cutoff raised the turn, I think I'd fold because players like this:

[ QUOTE ]
CO is fairly tight, regular aggression

[/ QUOTE ]
don't raise the turn with AK.

BluEsiNsOuL · #4 09-26-2005, 01:32 AM

I'll go check-raise on flop. If he 3-betted I would call down.
If you call his raise on turn you shouldn't fold the river.

Hojglad · #5 09-26-2005, 01:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you call his raise on turn you shouldn't fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why not? We had a gutshot on the turn (as well as a 2 out draw to the very probable nuts that we were getting odds to call once he put the raise in). Do you really think the cutoff raises this turn with 77 or AK of clubs? Does he bet the river with either? Those are the only hands that we are beating right now, and the probability of him having either of those should be very low once he bets the river.

DCWildcat · #6 09-26-2005, 01:37 AM

Are we "confident" enough that we're behind >95% of the time to fold this river?

I don't like the turn bet. Check/call down from the flop. Nearly any draw is priced down to the river.

Hojglad · #7 09-26-2005, 01:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Check/call down from the flop. Nearly any draw is priced down to the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
I also think this is a very good line to take here. It gets us to showdown in a huge pot for 2.5 big bets. Some consideration needs to be given to folding if we don't pick up a gutshot draw on the turn, and instead the turn comes an A or a K.

BluEsiNsOuL · #8 09-26-2005, 01:44 AM

You might be right but it's a 20BB+ pot. It sounds like a weak argument, but I don't give up that pot just for 1 bet. Well, with a player behind to act is a concern, but the river card is rather safe.

Hojglad · #9 09-26-2005, 01:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It sounds like a weak argument, but I don't give up that pot just for 1 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with this line of reasoning, but keep in mind, we do have to be good about 5% of the time to call this river bet. With so many people left to act, there is no way a last-ditch bluff by AK of clubs is going to work, you know? Also, think about this from the cutoff's perspective. We have donk-bet him twice. He has to know that we intend on calling his river bet. Thus, when he chooses to bet the river when he could just check behind, he is betting for value. All signs point to fold. This is the proper decision.

That said, I am stupid and usually call this river too just because I would probably have to buy a new keyboard, mouse, computer, and monitor if he flipped up an unimproved AK of clubs or 77.

#10 09-26-2005, 02:23 AM

CO knows you don't have a 6 or 8 in your hand for the same reasons you do about him. I would have check raised the flop and probably folded to a 3 bet.
Having played the flop the way you did - I like the turn bet (on the off chance he's got AK[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], AQ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) but after the raise, that's where the hand ends for me.