Hypothetical Question

[Sparks]

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how is calling a raise with Ax +EV? A simple adjustment to the KK strategy of raising every time PF, but check-calling whenever an A shows up, means you will be -EV. The way I see it, going to showdown, Ax loses 2 out of 3 times. If you miss the flop and fold, then you're folding 4 out of 5 times, and losing $60 each time for a total of $240. On the 5th time, when you catch (and go on to win), you make 60 + 30 + 60 +60 = $210.

How is that +EV? Not saying your'e wrong, I just don't see it.

Sparks


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You're ignoring the blind money you're going to lose anyways every time you fold. 4 out of 5 times, you call, miss the flop, and lose $45 = $180 ($160 if you're playing 2/3 SB structure).

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Huh? I'm including the posted blind money, as I should. Why are you not including the blind money? 4 out of 5 times you lose 60 which is 240. On the 5th time you win 60 + 30 + 60 + 60 + 30(the folded BB post) = 240. So your best case scenario is you are break even when you're the SB. Otherwise, it's -EV, including playing from the BB and most certainly from positions other than the blinds.

If you don't want to include the posted blind money as a loss 4 out of 5 times, then Ax is +EV from the blinds. But obviously, it's just plain silly not to include it. Is it not money you are losing?

Thanks for your thoughts on this, by the way.

Sparks

[elindauer]

To put it in your language Sparks, you'd have to look at a fold as losing $20. So 5 folds is -$100. Calling loses less, so it's +EV.

Personally, I think this is a very confusing way to look at the math, so I avoid it, but it's no less correct. I prefer to look at the money in the pot as dead, and folding is $0 EV. Either way, calling Ax is the play, worth over 1/2 SB / hand.

good luck.
eric