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#31
11-28-2005, 12:04 PM
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Re: What percent of onliner poker players are profitable?
Do we really have to talk about this every month? And why do people actually care?
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#32
11-28-2005, 12:16 PM
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Re: What percent of onliner poker players are profitable?
[ QUOTE ]
Do we really have to talk about this every month? And why do people actually care? [/ QUOTE ] Do you walk down the street and interrupt peoples conversations when you feel the conversation is worthless?
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#33
11-28-2005, 12:19 PM
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Re: What percent of onliner poker players are profitable?
[ QUOTE ]
Do we really have to talk about this every month? And why do people actually care? [/ QUOTE ] Must you come piss on this thread every month? Why do you care? Reading this I just realized people are citing Jackpot Jay as an authority on this topic based on what he said someone told him. I think we can disregard that piece of info as auhoritative.
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#34
11-28-2005, 12:48 PM
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Re: What percent of onliner poker players are profitable?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I would hope a couple of the sites out there would be willing to answer it [/ QUOTE ] The 7-8% figure came from 2 seperate poker sites and was originally quoted by Jackpot Jay in an ESPN article. [/ QUOTE ] I know, but the problem seems to be that people are arguing about what this figure does and does not include. Although the chances are low that a poker room would answer, I figured why does someone not just ask? And even if people found out they were 1 in 10 or 1 in 20 or 1 in 5 of being a winner, the cynic in me does not think it would matter...you have people that cold call preflop with J/3o because its their lucky hand or they saw that it could have made a full house a couple hands ago. It would probably make little difference to them if they found out statistically they are a loser since they just don't realize they are since every now and then they win with crap.
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#35
11-28-2005, 03:41 PM
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Re: What percent of onliner poker players are profitable?
Rudbeack,
First, I posted a link to the one of the older threads, where this is extensively discussed. Second, you have to give some weight to the data compiled by the massive dataminers! [ QUOTE ] To get a 40/60 spread on winners/losers must require something like the average player to be atleast a 3BB/100 loser. [/ QUOTE ] Finally, given this statement by you, it should be fairly easy for you to understand why 40/60 is a close enough estimate of the true figure for it to be used. 3BB/100 is roughly equivalent to the rake (its actually slighly lower than this). The average player has no advantage over anyone else, and thus their distribution is mainly determined by the roughly equivalent distribution of cards. Thus you might expect a normal distribution of variance around the rake. A very small percentage of player have an advantage over their opponents, by better play! Which will slightly change the shape of the standard distribution.
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#36
11-28-2005, 04:07 PM
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Re: What percent of onliner poker players are profitable?
what about the actual winning players that show up as losers in your small sample? or in other words, the opposite, competing fact that you didnt take into account?
If the number is as low as some say, the reason is because the winners win so much more than the loser's lose. and the rake of course. the number i find astounding is that party made 400MM, and during the same period only paid out 38MM in withdrawals. is this true? I doubt very seriously they only paid out 38MM in withdrawals in a one year period...
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#37
11-28-2005, 04:46 PM
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Re: What percent of onliner poker players are profitable?
[ QUOTE ]
what about the actual winning players that show up as losers in your small sample? or in other words, the opposite, competing fact that you didnt take into account? If the number is as low as some say, the reason is because the winners win so much more than the loser's lose. and the rake of course. the number i find astounding is that party made 400MM, and during the same period only paid out 38MM in withdrawals. is this true? I doubt very seriously they only paid out 38MM in withdrawals in a one year period... [/ QUOTE ] Why do you find that amazing? Even the average "average" player probably only has a few hundred on their account to futz around with, how often do you think they withdraw? A lot of that discrepancy is probably all this float money.
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#39
11-28-2005, 06:22 PM
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Re: What percent of onliner poker players are profitable?
[ QUOTE ]
what about the actual winning players that show up as losers in your small sample? or in other words, the opposite, competing fact that you didnt take into account? [/ QUOTE ] I did treat them in a very roundabout way, to state it more obviously, from a dataminded PT db at say 2/4 we can't even be sure there exists winning player. Their footprint in the sample is rather small. (Well, we can be damn sure there is one winning player, the site operator.)
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#40
11-28-2005, 07:25 PM
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Re: What percent of onliner poker players are profitable?
One thing to consider that I dont think has been discussed yet in this thread is taxes. I gather that many marginally winning recreational players (and I am one) may be winners on paper but actual losers once tax liabilities and other "full costing adjustments" (such as gas to and from the casino, etc.) are included. So while we may be able to beat the games we're playing for a decent amount, our actual end of the day winnings are often much less. Of course, the costs of playing online are much smaller than playing live, but they still exist and must be considered if you're going to look at how many players are truly winners.
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