What percent of onliner poker players are profitable?

[Sniper]

[ QUOTE ]
the problem with the 7% figure is that it probably takes into account people who deposit $50, lose it, then quit. of players who play frequently, a much higher percentage must be winners.

[/ QUOTE ]

The primary reason why the poker room quoted numbers are so low, is because of MTT players, which account for a sizable chunk of the player population.

The percentage of ring game winners is higher, and I support the position of the dataminers that roughly 40% of ring game players are winners, though many only marginally.

In the grand scheme of things, not even 1% of the player population would be considered high volume, and most are here on these forums! (...and a very high percentage of long term active posters here are winners)

[Fraubump]

And all this begs the question of whoring. Since I got serious about poker (2+ years ago) I have played virtually no hands of poker that weren't being subsidized by bonus, prop payment, or rakeback (I have not kept great stats on this, but I estimate that about 50% of my profit is bonus cash). I'm sure many others are the same. Is a player who loses a bit at the tables and yet comes out ahead because of bonuses a winning or losing player?

[Sniper]

[ QUOTE ]
Is a player who loses a bit at the tables and yet comes out ahead because of bonuses a winning or losing player?

[/ QUOTE ]

Since the poker sites are aware of bonuses, it is certainly factored into the 7-8%.

Keep in mind, that less than 4% (but growing) of players have rakeback.

Clearly bonuses and rakeback combined turn a few marginal losers, into marginal winers. But, in the grand scheme of things, these numbers are small.

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
Keep in mind, that less than 4% (but growing)

[/ QUOTE ]

where did you get this number

[Sniper]

[ QUOTE ]
where did you get this number

[/ QUOTE ]

Its an estimate based on publically available information, statements from affiliates, and other data I've been able to collect!

It is likely a little high based on double counting of players with accounts at more than 1 rakeback affiliate.

[Nepa]

[ QUOTE ]
People are looking at their pokertracker summaries and think that 40% of players are winners?

"LOL"

[/ QUOTE ]

I wonder why I only have 36 percent winners in my PT? 36.18 to be exact.

[cgwahl]

Has anyone ever thought of maybe asking the poker sites directly?

I would hope a couple of the sites out there would be willing to answer it...PokerStars for example. Maybe saying you're from twoplustwo would help.

This way you can possibly at least get a breakdown of ring games, SNG's, tournaments, with bonuses, without bonuses, etc.

I don't know, just a thought.

[ QUOTE ]


I would hope a couple of the sites out there would be willing to answer it...PokerStars for example.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like some good publicity for a poker site: "Come play at our site. There is a 93% probability you will be a loser."

[Sniper]

[ QUOTE ]
I would hope a couple of the sites out there would be willing to answer it

[/ QUOTE ]

The 7-8% figure came from 2 seperate poker sites and was originally quoted by Jackpot Jay in an ESPN article.

[Rudbaeck]

I'll explain the seemingly high number of winners in everyones PT database once again. (This should be in the FAQ on right about every forum!)

Let's say you have played 100000 hands and know you win 2BB/100 and have a standard deviation of 16BB/100.

In my database I have 250 hands on you. It's not even 60% certain that you show up as a winner in my database.

To get a 40/60 spread on winners/losers must require something like the average player to be atleast a 3BB/100 loser.


A small homework to grind this idea in. Draw a bell curve, cut it out in two copies. Make a coordinate system on a piece of paper. Place one bell curve so that it has it's base on the horizontal line, and it's peak just to the right of the vertical axis. This is how the distribution over 100 hands looks for a winning player. A ~40% chunk of the curve lies to the left of 0, in the negative.

Take the other curve and place on the same horizontal line, but with it's peak slightly to the left of the vertical axis. This is the distribution of a losing player. Some ~40% of all sets of 100 hands will look winning.

The 40/60 spread doesn't actually require a single honest to god winning player to exist for it to appear in our data.