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#1
11-09-2005, 10:09 PM
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simple stats question
I have run at -0.41 over my last 12k hands. It has felt like I've run pretty badly, lots of bad beats, missing flops, etc... but, when comparing my VPIP, W$WSF, WTSD and W$SD to my full database of 115k hands at this limit, all my stats are pretty much the same. Is this possible? Or have I just been playing losing poker for the last 12k hands? I am starting to have doubts about my game [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
Any advice appreciated. 
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#2
11-09-2005, 10:17 PM
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Re: simple stats question
which limits are you currently playing at? To be honest, 12k hands is a lot to be playing losing poker (in my opinion), but you may be at a limit, or playing in a game with some tough competition that you aren't ready for yet. Also, with my experiences, if you are playing a limit lower than .50/$1, stats get all messes up, because of the lack of quality players, and plays at those limits.
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#3
11-09-2005, 10:22 PM
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Re: simple stats question
[ QUOTE ]
which limits are you currently playing at? To be honest, 12k hands is a lot to be playing losing poker (in my opinion), but you may be at a limit, or playing in a game with some tough competition that you aren't ready for yet. Also, with my experiences, if you are playing a limit lower than .50/$1, stats get all messes up, because of the lack of quality players, and plays at those limits. [/ QUOTE ] I recommend you look at the 6 max graph thread for more info. you can play winning poker for many more hands than this and still be in the red, especially at 6max
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#4
11-09-2005, 10:26 PM
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Re: simple stats question
It happens. Good players have reported longer stretches with worse results.
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#5
11-09-2005, 10:28 PM
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Re: simple stats question
Yes, I understand this. However, when I have run bad in the past, my VPIP would be slightly lower (not getting dealt good cards), WTSD would be lower (folding more before showdown), as would W$SF, and W$SD would be signigicantly lower(losing showdowns when I do get there). This is what I am asking, is it possible for all your stats to look good, but still be losing, even while playing winning poker.
I play 3/6, btw.
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#6
11-09-2005, 10:30 PM
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Re: simple stats question
It's possible.
Say you win 58% at showdown. In your bad run you could still win that often but you are simply winning loads of small pots and losing big ones. Same principle applies to the other stats.
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#7
11-09-2005, 10:35 PM
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Re: simple stats question
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I understand this. However, when I have run bad in the past, my VPIP would be slightly lower (not getting dealt good cards), WTSD would be lower (folding more before showdown), as would W$SF, and W$SD would be signigicantly lower(losing showdowns when I do get there). This is what I am asking, is it possible for all your stats to look good, but still be losing, even while playing winning poker. I play 3/6, btw. [/ QUOTE ] I recommend the following: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/remlin...mp;Main=3383209 http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...t=1#Post1342415
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#9
11-09-2005, 10:55 PM
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Re: simple stats question
10k is pretty light, and I've run far worse than that for that sample size. If you posted negative to marginal results for about 30k+ you should start to be concerned, regardless of how you've thought you ran.
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#10
11-09-2005, 11:11 PM
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Re: simple stats question
[ QUOTE ]
10k is pretty light, and I've run far worse than that for that sample size. If you posted negative to marginal results for about 30k+ you should start to be concerned, regardless of how you've thought you ran. [/ QUOTE ] How I ran wasn't the point of my post though... it was how my stats correlateled to when I ran bad and when I ran good.
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