Playing it TOO Safe?

[soweak.]

UTG is 14/6/2. My table stats for this session are 21/7/1.2. See below for my street-be-street thoughts.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.66 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.66 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.66 BB

Pre-Flop: I put him on a dominated pair. I think it was possible that he held AKo or AQs, but since I held two Aces I thought there was a better chance of QQ, KK, or JJ in this point. Leaning towards the KK or QQ.

Flop: I call planning on raising the turn here.

Turn: Yucky card. Now I am only beating QQ of my original hand range. If I raise here he will surely fold QQ, but I will only get called (or raised most likely) by a better hand.

River: I see no value in raising, if he has a worse hand, he is folding.

Maybe too passive? Up for discussion. Your thoughts and criticisms are encouraged.

[newhizzle]

soweak.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Push the flop...it will define the rest of the hand.

[ejay]

[ QUOTE ]
Push the flop...it will define the rest of the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

[TheHammer24]

Not terrible logic with just calling down after the turn. but why in the hell do you not raise this flop.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG is 14/6/2. My table stats for this session are 21/7/1.2. See below for my street-be-street thoughts.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.66 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.66 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.66 BB

Pre-Flop: I put him on a dominated pair. I think it was possible that he held AKo or AQs, but since I held two Aces I thought there was a better chance of QQ, KK, or JJ in this point. Leaning towards the KK or QQ.

Flop: I call planning on raising the turn here.

Turn: Yucky card. Now I am only beating QQ of my original hand range. If I raise here he will surely fold QQ, but I will only get called (or raised most likely) by a better hand.

River: I see no value in raising, if he has a worse hand, he is folding.

Maybe too passive? Up for discussion. Your thoughts and criticisms are encouraged.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raise the flop, he 3bets, you cap.

He bets turn, u call

He bets river, you call

You win or lose.

Either way, raise the flop.

[soweak.]

[ QUOTE ]
But why in the hell do you not raise this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

My logic was this: I figured he was drawing to at most 2 outs with a worse pair or to two running cards. Or I was drawing to two outs if he had JJ or TT. Based on the hands he had played, I thought he would slowplay top or middle set on the flop (I think he thinks I could have AK or AQ here) so I read his bet as an overpair or an attempt to drive me out with AK or AQ. I figure him that most likely its a bigger pair and that I will get paid off for bigger bets if I raise the turn, whereas he might slow down on the turn if we go 2 or 3 bets on the flop.

[Nytecaster]

Classic case of overthinking an opponents holding and not remembering to protect the hand against a potentially dangerous board. There is a straight draw and a heart draw that has to be pounded before it can get a chance to develop and slow you down as exampled. Sometimes you just have to bite the bullet and lose equity against hands that would normally fold here because you have to not lose the equity when the board gets a bit scary. Make sense?

Worse case scenario you are against K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and you are still ahead in the hand. He may even cap you each round thinking he has the best of it with a hand like that. Okay not worse case scenario but unless you are against trips or two pair, you are looking good.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But why in the hell do you not raise this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

My logic was this: I figured he was drawing to at most 2 outs with a worse pair or to two running cards. Or I was drawing to two outs if he had JJ or TT. Based on the hands he had played, I thought he would slowplay top or middle set on the flop (I think he thinks I could have AK or AQ here) so I read his bet as an overpair or an attempt to drive me out with AK or AQ. I figure him that most likely its a bigger pair and that I will get paid off for bigger bets if I raise the turn, whereas he might slow down on the turn if we go 2 or 3 bets on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Nick C]

If your AA-TT, AK/AQ range for Villain is correct, I don't think there's any hand UTG is very likely to fold prior to the river on this board.

Given the card that fell on the turn, I think he's taking all of the listed hands to showdown, with the possible exception of QQ (though I'm pretty sure he is taking that hand to the river).

I like a flop raise. Given the actual cards that fell, I can see why you just called the turn and river, though.

For my own benefit, I'll do some combos.

We tie the other AA (1 combo).

We beat:

AK = 6 combos
QQ = 6 combos

We lose to:

AQ = 8 combos
KK = 3 combos
JJ = 3 combos
TT = 3 combos

So that doesn't look too good, though we should probably discount the AQ somewhat, given the preflop cap.

Despite having the worst of the outs on the flop versus Villain's range, you are in good shape at that point. And Villain may be in worse (or even much worse) shape than he realizes.

I don't really think waiting until the turn is so bad, but I also think that even when it works as planned, it'll only be marginally more profitable against this opponent than just raising the flop.

And sometimes (when you're up against, say, KK), I suspect you'll fare better with a flop raise (though you wouldn't have this particular time, given the card that fell on the turn).

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: Yucky card. Now I am only beating QQ of my original hand range. If I raise here he will surely fold QQ, but I will only get called (or raised most likely) by a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
He won't fold an oesd but I agree, raising the turn is not good...