Are we witnessing the begining of the end of the poker bubble?

[Luv2DriveTT]

Its possible... attendance is down in AC, the new rooms aren't getting off the ground as anticipated. Of course Party's stock was down pre-split due to fears of the segment slowing down, and now word comes of a downswing in TV Ratings:
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After two years of booming ratings and more press coverage than any other programming trend this side of reality TV, the televised poker audience is, in many cases, dropping.

Travel Channel's "World Poker Tour" was down 17 percent in total viewers watching first-run episodes during its 2005 season, compared with 2004, according to Nielsen Media Research. ESPN's "World Series of Poker" is down 14 percent season to date. CNBC's "Heads Up Poker" tournament is down 18 percent. And among the three iterations of GSN's own "Poker Royale" series, most are similarly down.

And those are the success stories.

The syndicated effort "Ultimate Poker Challenge" is struggling, having been relegated to early-morning slots in major markets. E! debuted "Hollywood Poker Night" this summer but has not renewed the program. CMT's "Dead Man's Hand," like several announced poker projects, died in development.

The only series that bucked the trend was Bravo's "Celebrity Poker Showdown," which increased 12 percent, though its overall audience is much smaller than the ESPN or Travel Channel shows.

The question for networks and producers now is whether the numbers signal a downward slide or merely the stabilization after an impossible-to-sustain boom.

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I think it might be the beginning of the deflation of the bubble, but I don't foresee the bubble pooping.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Luv:

If our book sales are any indication, we're havung a very strong month.

Best wishes,
mason

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but I don't foresee the bubble pooping.

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I'm not smart enough to make a witty comment here.

LOL

[Luv2DriveTT]

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Hi Luv:

If our book sales are any indication, we're having a very strong month.

Best wishes,
mason

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One of the first indicators of an economy's rebound is the increase in marketing budgets from various retail sectors. Conversely there are various sectors that are often last to feel the effects of entry into a recession.

I think we all agree that the poker bubble was fueled by television, if I recall correctly from our conversations and relevant posts here on 2+2 your business was on an upswing but truly hit it's peek within the past year - which is effectively after the creation of the bubble. This seems logical, it would mean that many consumers who truly love the game eventually found their way to 2+2's products (books & website of course). Conversely it is possible that 2+2 may be one of the last businesses to feel the effects of a deflated poker bubble, since your products appeal mostly to consumers who are willing to invest in their knowledge rather than those who watch TV and instantly assume they can conquer the game.

I don't expect us to experience another downswing anytime soon like Vegas experienced some 10 or so years ago, but I do think it might be the first sign of a poker economy correction that will help stabilize it's future, and in turn it's co-branding/sponship ability. I have already spoken to a media planner who is no longer considering the poker playing consumer for his national brand client's advertising, he believes the marketability of the game is already drying up (I of course think he is wrong, but I cannot convince him otherwise).

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[Luv2DriveTT]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but I don't foresee the bubble pooping.

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I'm not smart enough to make a witty comment here.

LOL

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Gotta love IESpell, it obviously screwed that one up for me.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[BluffTHIS!]

It is also possible that B&M poker suffers more in the future because of online poker, so both don't necessarily have to follow the same direction. And even if the TV fueled explosion has reached its zenith (and if the WPT went belly-up the badly edited and short WSOP telecasts might not be enough to keep that explosion going), then there still would likely be a slowly declining carry-over for decades, much as happened after WWII when former military who learned poker during their service kept playing it afterwards.

[Rick Nebiolo]

When TV poker with hole card cams first started someone in cyberspace wrote that TV poker was becoming popular because it was "reality TV with the reality".

Now many players feel it's necessary (or are egged on by TV producers) to get involved in attention getting outbursts, excess table banter and so on. A lot of it looks artificial and phony and my guess is people are finally beginning to notice.

OTOH, I never got into shows such as "Survivor" in the first place so what do I know.

~ Rick

Yes, this is the bubble, and the end of (easy) poker. So all those young internet players who found early scores in their lives should quit now. Otherwise, learn the true grind of a professional gambler.

good luck.

I'm curious as to to what degree poker will change. How much worse does it have to get for the bubble to be considered popped?

One metric you could use is what limits in the heyday of poker will have about the same skill level as the limits at a later time.

What ratio do you guys think there is for now (I would say about 2) and what are your future predictions for this ratio?

[daryn]

poker was pretty profitable before the "boom" and it will be profitable for many years to come