Turn decision

[deception5]

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Yea this was basically my thinking on the river. I paused for like 15 seconds and hit the call button, only to be shown the frush. Damn. I don't know if this could be a leak or not, but I just hate folding on the river for 1 bet. If you haven't seen it yet, in the mid/high forums they are discussing folding for 1 bet in a big pot on teh river when you are real sure your behind, check it out. Something I have been pondering the last month or two.
Is it ever going to be such a mistake that it could change your overall earn. Compared to folding for 1 bet when you fold the best hand?

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I've been reading those discussions as well (there was an astroglide post a few months about this too). The main argument is that this is a decision like any other decision you make - it's no more of a mistake to fold on the river than it is to fold on the turn (except that the bet size is 1/2). When you call in these situations sure sometimes you win a pot you would have folded the best hand in. But you're probably calling in 10 other situations where you are clearly beaten and essentially this can turn into a big leak (a mistake you have many opportunities in a session to make). In the long term it could be profitable to fold a winner if you also fold 10 losing hands in doing so.

I think the idea of the Ed Miller post (don't fold for 1 bet in a big pot) is that most new players play scared. When the fourth flush card comes in and they are bet into they throw away their set thinking their lone opponent must have a flush. Since this is such a great bluffing opportunity where 1 bet can take down a large pot it is important to call with such a strong hand.

In this example, a flop call/cap would make for a very expensive bluff and is far more likely to be a made hand afraid to scare away customers. The 9 completes the flush and one of the possible oesd's, so the only hand a reasonable opponent could have logically played this way is 64 - and it's wishful thinking that he would have limped in with this hand.

For the record I call these too much as well.

[detruncate]

If limper is properly aggressive pf, we don't care about giving a free card. He probably raises any offsuit ace he'd play. If he has a suited ace, it's either a flush by now or he's not getting one. He might have a set. He might have 2-pair. He might have something less obvious, but I think we're in trouble.

The pot is big enough that I plan to call a river bet after checking through the turn. Hopefully the combined chances of overplaying something strange + improving is enough to make it profitable. Whatever. I just can't see folding TPTK for one more bet, especially after the strange flop action.