Turn decision

I think he is folding a hand that beats you pretty much never. If we feel that we can safely fold to a c/r, then I think betting is good. And if we know he has a flush then a fold is good. But what if he has A5 or something we're folding in a 10BB pot with a buttload of outs.

[deception5]

I think a slightly loose player is taking a hand he liked enough to cap the flop to the showdown here heads up almost every time, he's just not betting it. I think our odds are a lot better if we check behind and hope for a K/9. A 7 may even help us if he has A5. An ace will also help against 75.

The only hands I can think of we might be ahead of are a strangely played AQ/AJ, splitting with AK and ahead of 64o. I don't think we're good often enough to call the river bet if we have any respect for the opponent, but I'd probably call because I tend to underestimate my opponents [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[car ramrod]

[ QUOTE ]
This is nutty. One the one hand, you can check behind, call a river bet and see a showdown for 1 bet. On the other, it looks like he made two-pair or a set on the flop, and is afraid you've got the flush, so if you bet he miiiiiight fold, if he raises you can pretty safely fold yourself, and if he just calls you might get a showdown for the same price as the first option.

Bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think you reasoning is good here. If we bet the turn and he just calls, your checking the river?

I just don't know if he can fold this turn to 1 bet, I have not seen him make any 'big laydowns,' so it's tough to say.

Either way it's probably close. I just wasn't sure I was ahead here very often. I think I should fold the river to 1 bet. What do you think? (assuming you check the turn like I did).

[car ramrod]

River: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Limper bets, I ....

I think I would call. I think our turn check might have induced a bluff from a worse ace. This might be a leak on my part though.

[car ramrod]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I would call. I think our turn check might have induced a bluff from a worse ace. This might be a leak on my part though.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that in a normal situation a check on the turn may induce a bluff, bet villian has shown a lot of strength so far, so I'm not sure how often he has a weaker A. I think he check on the turn was more him wanting to check raise me then him showing weakness, but I could be wrong. By checking the turn I have no way of knowing. Meh, maybe I should have bet/folded the turn.

Yeah I had misread the action about limper capping the flop. Who knows. I don't like betting the turn b/c that cap likely means either flush draw or two pair/set. Take our free card to try to improve over two pair I think. Which probably means you can fold the river.

[deception5]

The more I think about it the more I think checking the turn and folding the river unimproved is the best play. I don't think we can get a better hand to fold to a turn bet and I don't think we have the best hand nearly often enough to call on the river without a donktastic read.

[silkyslim]

check/call river bet

[car ramrod]

[ QUOTE ]
The more I think about it the more I think checking the turn and folding the river unimproved is the best play. I don't think we can get a better hand to fold to a turn bet and I don't think we have the best hand nearly often enough to call on the river without a donktastic read.


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Yea this was basically my thinking on the river. I paused for like 15 seconds and hit the call button, only to be shown the frush. Damn. I don't know if this could be a leak or not, but I just hate folding on the river for 1 bet. If you haven't seen it yet, in the mid/high forums they are discussing folding for 1 bet in a big pot on teh river when you are real sure your behind, check it out. Something I have been pondering the last month or two.
Is it ever going to be such a mistake that it could change your overall earn. Compared to folding for 1 bet when you fold the best hand?