($55) ITM push, my heart says yes but my brain says no

[xJMPx]

I'll just add this, and you can take if for what it's worth. If he calls you, there is not a range that would make it +$EV for you. Ie., if you assume he will call you with any two, your best case 0 EV.

I'll leave it up to someone of figure out how often he has to fold to make this a push.

Edit: I just played around with SNGPT a little more, and ran some cases where Hero is open pushing into the big stack here. Even if the big stack is only calling with TT+,AQs+,AKo it is only +0.7% EV.

So, if we consider that if he calls it always -EV and that if were were open pushing he has to be real tight here to make it acceptably +EV we can conclude, with some degree of confidence, that this is a fold.

This is a real 'loose' analysis, but I think it works alright...thoughts?

[Jack Fate]

Devin, it was a good analysis for why not to push. But that doesn't mean you have to fold! This is a call.

[lastchance]

Huh?

<--- insta-shoves, and does not believe it is close.