#16
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Re: Finally figured out AK in early rounds....
I don't use ICM so you'll have to bear with me.
Does ICM factor in the percentage of the time someone is going to call with those hands? Or the percentage of the time they will have callable hands? Because I would say that maybe, I don't know (arbitrary number alert), 20% of the time is some donk going to call here with 77 or another medium PP. Which definitely shifts it back into the +EV category. Same applies to pairs at least up to TT, then maybe they're more inclined to call with JJ, QQ is probably a lock to call, et cetera. Fold equity is the key thing here, and why this play is profitable in the long run. Not to mention the "giga-advantage" of having a big stack (not that any of us can play a stack like gigabet, but I know I at least have a slightly bigger edge with more chips at my disposal). edit: I wanted to add in that, on top of the low pair hands, there is also a range of hands that donks will call with here that we have completely dominated. I think this is +EV if they ONLY call with pocket pairs -- I think it is very much +EV when you factor in calls with AQ, AJ and KQ. |
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