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#31
03-10-2005, 08:54 PM
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Re: 3 betting with 22-66 at higher limits
[ QUOTE ] If you think you make money with overcards against a pair out of position you're insane. [/ QUOTE ] Not really. In limit poker you can get a lot of money in the pot after the flop AND after you have outflopped your opponent. So while the small PP guy will often put in 1.5 bb preflop as a small favorite, you can often get him to put in 2.5-4 bb after the flop as a massive dog. Also, once you get the small pp player trained, you can steal a fair number of pots from him. 
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#33
03-11-2005, 01:05 AM
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Re: 3 betting with 22-66 at higher limits
If you think you make money with overcards against a pair out of position you're insane.
Why? If it's someone who plans to just call to the river if he gets it headsup, you don't think you'll make a profit by deciding when to continue and when to fold? Or, if you're playing with someone who will lay the hand down, do you think you can't pick your spots to represent having hit the flop? The reality is that playing these small to medium pairs against overcards is difficult. I don't make the play of threebetting unless I have an opponent who I can read like a book (ie someone who will check fold if he misses the flop and will usually only put money in if he's hit the flop). With a decent player it's very hard to know what to do if two overcards flop and you're bet into - at least it's hard for me.
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#34
03-11-2005, 09:01 AM
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Re: 3 betting with 22-66 at higher limits
a) is this just a breakevenish type play that some high-limit guys do to "mix it up"
Yes. It's definitely of marginal value. If you keep your three-betting standard at 88/AJs/AQo or better (against what looks like very legimate open-raises, I *still* advice folding 88, AJs and perhaps even AQo and 99, but I realize I might be in the minority here), your average 3-betting hand will be AQs/JJ which is very very solid and will make people very uneasy about being 3-bet by you. You will still play LOTS of hands behind a raise. But of course there is some strength in itself in that one can possibly be holding a full on a flop such as 2-5-5 despite 3-betting preflop. b) if it is a winner, who is it good against and why is mainstream poker theory so wrong here? Limit Texas Holdem is evolving a lot these days. Even Ciaffone/Brier's Middle Limit Holdem seems outdated these days. There are numerous reasons for this. One being that the advice, unless otherwise stated is to be applied under normal game conditions - which has changed dramatically over the last few years. In particular, far more people have understood the concept that raising can have great merit even though one will win less than 50% of the hands or even though one "can't get anyone out of the pot anyway". Which has led to a lot of players pushing far smaller edges. Which in turn punishes the true fishes a lot more, so the games are probably as good as ever for the average "very good" player (although the average "very good" player has improved a lot, I think). c) what is the best way to punish the people who make this play? It's quite simple. Operating with standard open-raising standards, an early raise from me is minimum 77/AJo/KQs/ATs. ATs and 77 are very borderline and usually folded UTG and perhaps UTG+1. If an early raise from me is 3-bet in a game with lots of 3-betting (where one can suspect that for instance, a lot of three-betting is being done with the said pocket pairs 22-66), I will cap down to AQs/AKo/JJ. This means I will be capping HALF my raising hands. And 66-22 will be forced to put in four bets preflop. With 24 combinations for a big pocket pair, 16 for AK and 4 for AQs, continuing on flops without an A,K,Q will have about neutral EV for a small pocket, given that even when ahead on those flops, they will lose quite frequently to AK/AQ improving to a pair, a flush or double-pairing the board to counter-feit their baby pocket (on average, 44). All flops that contain an Ace, a King, a Queen or even the JTx combination (the chance of EITHER being behind - possibly BADLY - or being draw out (at least 10 outs against as well as possible flushdraws/backdoor flushdraws or the board pairing twice), the 3-betting guy with 66-22 will have fold IMMEDIATELY having put in FOUR bets preflop (unless he makes a set with the other two cards on the board - a 13 to 1 shot). Not a good proposition if you ask me. Ok, folding immediately at the JTx flop is perhaps debateable, but it's so close that it goes into the category "can just as well fold". As for the times he catches me with AJs/AQo/KQs/TT-88, he will win the pot immediately (3 small bets from me preflop) vs my TT-88 if an Ace or a King flops or turn unless I make a set or a draw to go, in the rest of the pots there is only a question of how many chips he will be spewing with his small pair (unless of course he makes a set to beat me without me making a higher one). Against AJs/AQo/KQs he will win the pot on the turn unless I have paired up or picked up a decent draw (four small bets). Again, if I improve, it's only a question of how many bets he will lose unless he makes a set with the 2, 3 or 4 other board cards (depending on how far we play). Also, remember that even though my counter-strategy might not be enough alone to make his play (slightly) profitable, there WILL be times where someone else will come in behind, usually with a four-bet, but playing this hand 3-way for 3 or 4 bets is quite a disaster anyway. The implied odds of flopping a set and having it hold up, which will happen about 1 in 11 or 12 I guess (you flop a set one in 9, but it won't ALWAYS hold up) is NOT enough to make up for that. lars
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#35
03-12-2005, 07:14 PM
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Re: 3 betting with 22-66 at higher limits
You're talking about this as though the overcards know they're up against a small pocket pair. In fact they know they're up against a 3bet, which even from someone who 3bets their small pocket pairs half the time is still a small pocket pair considerably less than a third of the time. You're not going to make money against the small pocket pairs in this situation unless you play in such a way as to lose alot against the other hands.
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#37
03-12-2005, 07:58 PM
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Re: 3 betting with 22-66 at higher limits
Great post, Lars. I think the following passage is especially important:
In particular, far more people have understood the concept that raising can have great merit even though one will win less than 50% of the hands or even though one "can't get anyone out of the pot anyway".
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#40
03-13-2005, 03:08 AM
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Re: 3 betting with 22-66 at higher limits
[ QUOTE ]
I think a better play is often to call 2 bets cold, especially near the button or on it. You should also mix this up with a few other hands, which I know you can figure out. If you are headsup, then great. If the blinds/button tag along, then great. [/ QUOTE ] What do you mean by, "You should also mix this up with a few other hands, which I know you can figure out. "
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